Football · Iraq Stars League · 22/10, 16:30

Prediction: Zakho vs Erbil SC

Team pages: Zakho · Erbil SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.17Total

Zakho0.96

Erbil SC1.21

1X2

28% 30% 41%

Zakho Draw Erbil SC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Zakho 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLDLDDWLLL

Erbil SC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWDWLWDL

Head-to-head

Zakho 3–2–1 Erbil SC (6 last)

Zakho1-2Erbil SC
Erbil SC0-1Zakho
Erbil SC0-0Zakho
Zakho3-1Erbil SC
Zakho2-1Erbil SC
Erbil SC1-1Zakho

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zakho 1465 · Erbil SC 1518

	Zakho	Draw	Erbil SC
Our model	28%	32%	41%
Market	29%	29%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.17 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Erbil SC (rating 1465 vs 1518).
H2H favours Zakho: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zakho	Erbil SC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.4	1.3 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.5	2.6 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.6	5.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.10

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.88

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 1.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.10▼	Bet365 3.10
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.00 → 2.15▲	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
03:57 +8’	3.40	3.10	2.00
04:55 +10’	3.10▼	3.10	2.15▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Zakho 3–2–1 Erbil SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/05/26 Iraq Stars League	Zakho	1-2 HT 0-1	Erbil SC
14/02/26 Iraq Stars League	Erbil SC	0-1 HT 0-0	Zakho
14/02/25 Iraq Stars League	Erbil SC	0-0 HT 0-0	Zakho
07/11/24 Iraq League	Zakho	3-1 HT 2-0	Erbil SC
22/05/24 Iraq League	Zakho	2-1 HT 0-0	Erbil SC
31/10/20 Iraq League	Erbil SC	1-1 HT 0-0	Zakho

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	10	7	3	0	17	7	24
2	Al Naft SC	10	6	3	1	13	5	21
3	Al Zawra'a	10	5	3	2	15	7	18
4	Erbil SC	10	5	3	2	13	5	18
4	Newroz SC	10	5	3	2	13	5	18
6	Al Shorta SC	10	4	5	1	10	5	17
7	Al Jolan SC	10	3	5	2	10	9	14
8	Al Talaba	10	3	5	2	11	11	14
9	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	10	2	6	2	14	12	12
10	Duhok	10	2	6	2	14	13	12
11	Diyala FC	10	3	3	4	15	16	12
12	Al Minaa	10	3	3	4	10	12	12
13	Ghaz Al Shamal	10	2	5	3	5	7	11
14	Mosul FC	10	3	2	5	10	15	11
15	Zakho	10	2	3	5	7	14	9
16	Al Gharraf	10	2	3	5	6	13	9
17	Al Karkh	10	2	2	6	13	18	8
18	Al Kahrabaa	10	1	5	4	6	11	8
19	Naft Maysan	10	1	5	4	7	14	8
20	Karbalaa FC	10	1	3	6	7	17	6

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zakho	Erbil SC
Al Karma	0-1 L	1-2 L
Mosul FC	2-1 W	0-1 L
Diyala FC	2-2 D	2-0 W
Al Minaa	1-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Erbil SC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zakho

WLDLDDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
09/10	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	1	0	L
19/09	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
13/09	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
09/09	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
05/09	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
29/08	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-4	8	6	L
25/08	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-2	4	2	D
20/08	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
15/08	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	7	3	W

Erbil SC

WDWWDWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	5	9	L
08/10	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
18/09	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	2-0	3-0	3	5	W
14/09	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-2	1-2	8	9	L
08/09	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	4	7	W
04/09	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
31/08	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
25/08	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
21/08	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
16/08	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	2-0	2-0	2	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zakho vs Erbil SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Erbil SC win (41%). Probabilities: Zakho 28%, draw 30%, Erbil SC 41%.

How many goals are expected in Zakho vs Erbil SC?

The model expects 2.17 goals (Zakho 0.96 · Erbil SC 1.21), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Zakho vs Erbil SC?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.