Football · Iraq Stars League · 09/09, 20:00

Prediction: Newroz SC vs Mosul FC

Team pages: Newroz SC · Mosul FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.34Total

Newroz SC1.29

Mosul FC1.05

1X2

41% 30% 29%

Newroz SC Draw Mosul FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Newroz SC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWDLLLDW

Mosul FC 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LDDLDDWWLD

Head-to-head

Newroz SC 1–1–0 Mosul FC (2 last)

Newroz SC1-1Mosul FC
Mosul FC0-2Newroz SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Newroz SC 1495 · Mosul FC 1484

	Newroz SC	Draw	Mosul FC
Our model	41%	30%	29%
Market	41%	30%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Newroz SC	Mosul FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.1	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.3	1.9 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.2	5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.00

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.09
2	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.32 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:16 +3’	2.20	3.00	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:15 +32’	2.00	3.09	3.32

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Newroz SC 1–1–0 Mosul FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/05/26 Iraq Stars League	Newroz SC	1-1 HT 0-1	Mosul FC
06/02/26 Iraq Stars League	Mosul FC	0-2 HT 0-1	Newroz SC

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Erbil SC	6	4	2	0	8	1	14
2	Al Zawra'a	6	3	3	0	12	3	12
3	Al Karma	5	3	2	0	8	4	11
4	Al Shorta SC	6	3	2	1	7	4	11
5	Al Naft SC	5	2	3	0	6	1	9
6	Newroz SC	5	2	2	1	8	4	8
7	Mosul FC	5	2	2	1	8	6	8
8	Duhok	6	1	5	0	8	7	8
9	Al Jolan SC	5	2	2	1	5	4	8
10	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	6	1	4	1	10	10	7
11	Al Minaa	5	2	1	2	5	6	7
12	Ghaz Al Shamal	6	1	3	2	4	5	6
13	Diyala FC	6	1	2	3	9	12	5
14	Zakho	5	1	2	2	4	8	5
15	Al Gharraf	6	1	2	3	3	7	5
16	Karbalaa FC	6	1	2	3	5	10	5
17	Al Kahrabaa	6	0	4	2	4	7	4
18	Al Talaba	5	0	3	2	4	8	3
19	Naft Maysan	5	0	3	2	1	7	3
20	Al Karkh	5	0	1	4	2	7	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Newroz SC	Mosul FC
Duhok	0-0 D	3-3 D
Al Talaba	0-1 L	2-2 D
Al Shorta SC	0-3 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Mosul FC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Newroz SC

LLWWDLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
30/08	Duhok Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
26/08	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	2	9	L
22/08	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
01/06	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
27/05	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
20/05	Zakho Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-1	6	7	W
16/05	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
11/05	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-2	12	4	L
05/05	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-3	6	3	L

Mosul FC

LDDLDDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-2	3	2	D
30/08	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-2	0	1	L
26/08	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
21/08	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	2-0	2-1	4	7	W
15/08	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
27/05	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
20/05	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	4	8	L
15/05	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-0	3-3	2	4	D
11/05	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-2	3	8	D
06/05	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-2	1	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Newroz SC vs Mosul FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Newroz SC win (41%). Probabilities: Newroz SC 41%, draw 30%, Mosul FC 29%.

How many goals are expected in Newroz SC vs Mosul FC?

The model expects 2.34 goals (Newroz SC 1.29 · Mosul FC 1.05), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Newroz SC vs Mosul FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.