Football · Iraq Stars League · 08/10, 19:30

Prediction: Al Talaba vs Al Shorta SC

Team pages: Al Talaba · Al Shorta SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.18Total

Al Talaba0.91

Al Shorta SC1.28

1X2

26% 30% 44%

Al Talaba Draw Al Shorta SC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Talaba 1-7-2 (W-D-L)

DDDLDDDWLD

Al Shorta SC 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDDLWWDWDW

Head-to-head

Al Talaba 2–2–2 Al Shorta SC (6 last)

Al Shorta SC3-3Al Talaba
Al Talaba1-0Al Shorta SC
Al Shorta SC1-1Al Talaba
Al Talaba0-2Al Shorta SC
Al Shorta SC1-0Al Talaba
Al Talaba2-1Al Shorta SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Talaba 1484 · Al Shorta SC 1555

	Al Talaba	Draw	Al Shorta SC
Our model	25%	31%	44%
Market	26%	29%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.18 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Shorta SC (rating 1484 vs 1555).
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Talaba	Al Shorta SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.4	1.1 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.2	3.6 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.3	3.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.10

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.02

2 (-0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
06:52 +9’	3.40	3.10	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Talaba 2–2–2 Al Shorta SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/03/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Shorta SC	3-3 HT 2-1	Al Talaba
26/12/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Talaba	1-0 HT 0-0	Al Shorta SC
08/07/25 Iraq Cup	Al Shorta SC	1-1 HT 0-0	Al Talaba
04/03/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Talaba	0-2 HT 0-1	Al Shorta SC
05/10/24 Iraq League	Al Shorta SC	1-0 HT 0-0	Al Talaba
19/02/24 Iraq League	Al Talaba	2-1 HT 0-1	Al Shorta SC

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	8	6	2	0	14	5	20
2	Al Zawra'a	8	5	3	0	15	3	18
3	Erbil SC	8	5	2	1	12	3	17
4	Al Shorta SC	8	4	3	1	9	4	15
5	Al Naft SC	8	4	3	1	9	5	15
6	Newroz SC	8	3	3	2	10	5	12
7	Al Talaba	8	2	4	2	10	11	10
8	Al Jolan SC	8	2	4	2	8	9	10
9	Duhok	8	1	6	1	11	11	9
10	Diyala FC	8	2	3	3	13	14	9
11	Al Minaa	8	2	3	3	8	10	9
12	Zakho	8	2	3	3	7	11	9
13	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	8	1	5	2	11	12	8
14	Ghaz Al Shamal	8	1	5	2	4	5	8
15	Mosul FC	8	2	2	4	9	12	8
16	Al Karkh	8	2	1	5	10	14	7
17	Al Kahrabaa	8	1	4	3	6	10	7
18	Naft Maysan	8	1	4	3	6	11	7
19	Al Gharraf	8	1	2	5	4	12	5
20	Karbalaa FC	8	1	2	5	6	15	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Talaba	Al Shorta SC
Al Jolan SC	2-2 D	1-0 W
Al Karkh	3-2 W	2-0 W
Al Minaa	1-1 D	0-0 D
Al Karma	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Al Shorta SC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Talaba

DDDLDDDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	2-1	2-2	4	3	D
13/09	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-2	2	4	L
09/09	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	1-2	3-2	2	2	W
05/09	Zakho Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	1	8	D
31/08	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
22/08	Duhok Iraq Stars League	3-2	3-3	3	2	D
15/08	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
01/06	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
28/05	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	1	6	D
19/05	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	4	3	D

Al Shorta SC

WDDLWWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
12/09	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
08/09	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-1	8	3	W
04/09	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
30/08	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	7	1	W
25/08	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
21/08	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
16/08	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
02/06	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	12	4	D
28/05	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	8	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Talaba vs Al Shorta SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Al Shorta SC win (44%). Probabilities: Al Talaba 26%, draw 30%, Al Shorta SC 44%.

How many goals are expected in Al Talaba vs Al Shorta SC?

The model expects 2.18 goals (Al Talaba 0.91 · Al Shorta SC 1.28), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Talaba vs Al Shorta SC?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.