Football · Spain La Liga · 13/09, 17:00

Prediction: Sevilla vs Valencia

Team pages: Sevilla · Valencia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.25Total

Sevilla1.25

Valencia1

1X2

41% 30% 28%

Sevilla Draw Valencia

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Sevilla 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWWLLWWL

Valencia 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDWLWDWWDL

Head-to-head

Sevilla 0–3–3 Valencia (6 last)

Sevilla0-2Valencia
Valencia1-1Sevilla
Valencia1-0Sevilla
Sevilla1-1Valencia
Valencia0-0Sevilla
Sevilla1-2Valencia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sevilla 1524 · Valencia 1467

	Sevilla	Draw	Valencia
Our model	41%	31%	28%
Market	41%	30%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sevilla (rating 1524 vs 1467).
H2H favours Valencia: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sevilla	Valencia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.3 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	10/90/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.6	1.8 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.10

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.10

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5%

Time*	1	X	2
22:47 +7’	2.25	3.10	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sevilla 0–3–3 Valencia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Spain La Liga	Sevilla	0-2 HT 0-2	Valencia
07/12/25 Spain La Liga	Valencia	1-1 HT 0-0	Sevilla
11/04/25 Spain La Liga	Valencia	1-0 HT 1-0	Sevilla
11/01/25 Spain La Liga	Sevilla	1-1 HT 0-0	Valencia
17/02/24 Spain La Liga	Valencia	0-0 HT 0-0	Sevilla
11/08/23 Spain La Liga	Sevilla	1-2 HT 0-0	Valencia

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Madrid	3	3	0	0	10	2	9
2	Atletico Madrid	3	2	1	0	7	3	7
3	CD Alaves	3	2	1	0	5	1	7
4	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	7	0	6
5	Sevilla	3	2	0	1	6	5	6
6	Real Betis	3	2	0	1	4	5	6
7	Deportivo A Coruna	3	1	2	0	5	3	5
8	Osasuna	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
9	Levante	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
9	Racing Santander	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
11	Espanyol	3	1	0	2	5	4	3
12	Getafe	2	1	0	1	1	3	3
13	Real Sociedad	3	1	0	2	3	6	3
14	Villarreal	3	0	2	1	4	5	2
15	Rayo Vallecano	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
16	Celta Vigo	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
17	Valencia	3	0	1	2	1	4	1
18	Elche	3	0	1	2	3	9	1
19	Malaga	3	0	1	2	1	7	1
20	Athletic Bilbao	2	0	0	2	1	5	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sevilla	Valencia
Atletico Madrid	1-3 L	0-2 L
Athletic Bilbao	3-1 W	1-0 W
Rayo Vallecano	2-1 W	1-1 D
Celta Vigo	0-1 L	0-0 D
Real Sociedad	1-0 W	4-3 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sevilla (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sevilla

LLWWWLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-3	1-3	4	4	L
22/08	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	1-0	3-1	3	7	W
15/08	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	0-1	2-1	1	9	W
23/05	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
17/05	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
13/05	Villarreal Spain La Liga	2-2	3-2	4	3	W
09/05	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-0	2-1	4	9	W
04/05	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
26/04	Osasuna Spain La Liga	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
23/04	Levante Spain La Liga	0-1	0-2	6	5	L

Valencia

LDWLWDWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	Real Betis Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
22/08	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
23/05	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-0	3-1	7	4	W
17/05	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	2-1	4-3	2	5	W
14/05	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	1-1	1-1	5	2	D
10/05	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
02/05	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-0	0-2	1	4	L
25/04	Girona Spain La Liga	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
21/04	Mallorca Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
11/04	Elche Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	9	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sevilla vs Valencia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sevilla win (41%). Probabilities: Sevilla 41%, draw 30%, Valencia 28%.

How many goals are expected in Sevilla vs Valencia?

The model expects 2.25 goals (Sevilla 1.25 · Valencia 1), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Valencia?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.