Football · Spain La Liga · 13/09, 21:00
Prediction: Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid
Team pages: Real Sociedad · Atletico Madrid
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.19Total
Real Sociedad1.49
Atletico Madrid1.69
1X2
Real Sociedad
Draw
Atletico Madrid
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Real Sociedad
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Atletico Madrid
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Real Sociedad
0–3–3
Atletico Madrid
(6 last)
- Atletico Madrid2-2Real Sociedad
- Atletico Madrid3-2Real Sociedad
- Real Sociedad1-1Atletico Madrid
- Atletico Madrid4-0Real Sociedad
- Real Sociedad1-1Atletico Madrid
- Real Sociedad0-2Atletico Madrid
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Madrid (rating 1462 vs 1547).
- H2H favours Atletico Madrid: 3-3-0.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Real Sociedad | Atletico Madrid | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.9 | 1.8 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.7 | 3 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.7 / 0.2 | 3.7 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Sociedad 0–3–3 Atletico Madrid
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 Spain Copa del Rey | Atletico Madrid | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Real Sociedad |
| 07/03/26 Spain La Liga | Atletico Madrid | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Real Sociedad |
| 04/01/26 Spain La Liga | Real Sociedad | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Atletico Madrid |
| 10/05/25 Spain La Liga | Atletico Madrid | 4-0 HT 4-0 | Real Sociedad |
| 06/10/24 Spain La Liga | Real Sociedad | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Atletico Madrid |
| 25/05/24 Spain La Liga | Real Sociedad | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Atletico Madrid |
Standings · Spain La Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Madrid | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | CD Alaves | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Barcelona | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Real Betis | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| 7 | Deportivo A Coruna | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| 8 | Osasuna | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Levante | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 9 | Racing Santander | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| 12 | Getafe | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | Real Sociedad | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 14 | Villarreal | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 15 | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 16 | Celta Vigo | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | Valencia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 18 | Elche | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| 19 | Malaga | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| 20 | Athletic Bilbao | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Real Sociedad | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 3-4 L | 2-0 W |
| Girona | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Sevilla | 0-1 L | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 2 L | 3 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Atletico Madrid (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Real Sociedad
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Espanyol Spain La Liga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 26/08 | Real Madrid Spain La Liga |
1-1 | 1-4 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 21/08 | Real Betis Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 23/05 | Espanyol Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | Valencia Spain La Liga |
1-2 | 3-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 14/05 | Girona Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 09/05 | Real Betis Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 04/05 | Sevilla Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga |
1-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 22/04 | Getafe Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
Atletico Madrid
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Sevilla Spain La Liga |
3-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 23/08 | Villarreal Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 19/08 | Malaga Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Villarreal Spain La Liga |
1-4 | 1-5 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 17/05 | Girona Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 12/05 | Osasuna Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 11 | W |
| 09/05 | Celta Vigo Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Valencia Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 22/04 | Elche Spain La Liga |
2-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Madrid win (42%). Probabilities: Real Sociedad 33%, draw 25%, Atletico Madrid 42%.
How many goals are expected in Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid?
The model expects 3.19 goals (Real Sociedad 1.49 · Atletico Madrid 1.69), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.