Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 12/09, 21:00

Prediction: Heerenveen vs Telstar

Team pages: Heerenveen · Telstar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.38Total

Heerenveen2.04

Telstar1.34

1X2

53% 23% 24%

Heerenveen Draw Telstar

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Heerenveen 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WWLDLWDLDL

Telstar 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDWWWLLD

Head-to-head

Heerenveen 3–1–0 Telstar (4 last)

Heerenveen3-0Telstar
Telstar2-3Heerenveen
Heerenveen1-1Telstar
Heerenveen3-0Telstar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Heerenveen 1539 · Telstar 1453

	Heerenveen	Draw	Telstar
Our model	53%	23%	24%
Market	53%	23%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.38 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Heerenveen (rating 1539 vs 1453).
H2H favours Heerenveen: 3-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Heerenveen	Telstar
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	1.6 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.2	2.2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	3.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.75

X4.10

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.75▼	Bet365 1.75
X	4.00 → 4.10▲	Bet365 4.10
2	3.60 → 3.80▲	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
01:06 +6’	1.80	4.00	3.60
19:27 +4’	1.75▼	4.10▲	3.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Heerenveen 3–1–0 Telstar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	Heerenveen	3-0 HT 1-0	Telstar
19/10/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Telstar	2-3 HT 1-2	Heerenveen
11/07/25 Europe Friendlies	Heerenveen	1-1 HT 1-1	Telstar
11/07/14 Club Friendly List	Heerenveen	3-0 HT 2-0	Telstar

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AZ	5	5	0	0	16	5	15
2	PSV	5	4	1	0	18	6	13
3	Feyenoord	5	3	2	0	13	7	11
4	Fortuna Sittard	5	3	1	1	11	9	10
5	Excelsior	4	3	0	1	10	3	9
6	Ajax	4	2	1	1	9	5	7
6	FC Twente	4	2	1	1	9	5	7
8	Go Ahead Eagles	4	2	1	1	11	9	7
9	FC Groningen	5	2	1	2	11	12	7
10	NEC	4	2	0	2	9	7	6
11	Sparta Rotterdam	5	1	2	2	9	9	5
12	Heerenveen	5	1	2	2	7	9	5
13	Telstar	4	1	1	2	5	10	4
14	PEC Zwolle	5	1	1	3	6	10	4
15	FC Utrecht	4	0	1	3	6	15	1
16	Willem II	4	0	1	3	4	13	1
17	ADO Den Haag	5	0	1	4	6	14	1
18	Cambuur Leeuwarden	5	0	1	4	6	18	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Heerenveen	Telstar
Ajax	2-2 D	0-4 L
FC Utrecht	2-3 L	1-4 L
FC Volendam	2-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Heerenveen (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Heerenveen

WWLDLWDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	2-3	4	3	L
30/08	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-2	7	0	D
22/08	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
16/08	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	2-2	2	4	D
09/08	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
21/05	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-3	6	1	L
17/05	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-0	10	3	D
11/05	NAC Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-2	2	1	L
03/05	FC Volendam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
25/04	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-1	7	4	W

Telstar

LLWDWWWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-2	4	8	D
30/08	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-4	5	0	L
14/08	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-3	7	2	L
08/08	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	2-1	3	4	W
17/05	FC Volendam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-1	0	4	W
10/05	Heracles Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	3-0	6	5	W
02/05	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	1-1	0	5	D
22/04	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	4-1	6	2	W
11/04	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-4	5	3	L
04/04	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-2	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Heerenveen vs Telstar?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Heerenveen win (53%). Probabilities: Heerenveen 53%, draw 23%, Telstar 24%.

How many goals are expected in Heerenveen vs Telstar?

The model expects 3.38 goals (Heerenveen 2.04 · Telstar 1.34), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs Telstar?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.