Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 19/09, 20:00

Prediction: Ajax vs Excelsior

Team pages: Ajax · Excelsior

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.87Total

Ajax2.85

Excelsior1.02

1X2

75% 15% 10%

Ajax Draw Excelsior

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Ajax 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DLDWDWDWLW

Excelsior 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWDWWLWWD

Head-to-head

Ajax 2–3–1 Excelsior (6 last)

Excelsior2-2Ajax
Ajax1-2Excelsior
Ajax2-2Excelsior
Excelsior2-2Ajax
Excelsior1-4Ajax
Ajax7-1Excelsior

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ajax 1583 · Excelsior 1588

	Ajax	Draw	Excelsior
Our model	74%	16%	10%
Market	75%	15%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 3.87 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Ajax: 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ajax	Excelsior
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1	2.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	1.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6.1	2.4 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	2.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.25

X6.25

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.82

2 (+1.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.80

Under 3.752.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.25▼	Bet365 1.25
X	5.25 → 6.25▲	Bet365 6.25
2	6.50 → 9.00▲	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
01:03 +5’	1.36	5.25	6.50
20:49 +4’	1.25▼	6.25▲	9.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ajax 2–3–1 Excelsior

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/02/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	Excelsior	2-2 HT 0-2	Ajax
22/11/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Ajax	1-2 HT 0-1	Excelsior
24/04/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	Ajax	2-2 HT 1-1	Excelsior
19/08/23 Netherlands Eredivisie	Excelsior	2-2 HT 1-1	Ajax
29/01/23 Netherlands Eredivisie	Excelsior	1-4 HT 1-2	Ajax
16/10/22 Netherlands Eredivisie	Ajax	7-1 HT 3-0	Excelsior

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	PSV	6	5	1	0	22	7	16
2	AZ	6	5	1	0	17	6	16
3	Feyenoord	6	4	2	0	20	7	14
4	FC Twente	6	4	1	1	12	5	13
5	Ajax	5	3	1	1	14	6	10
6	Excelsior	6	3	1	2	13	7	10
7	Fortuna Sittard	6	3	1	2	12	14	10
8	Go Ahead Eagles	6	2	3	1	15	13	9
9	FC Groningen	6	2	2	2	12	13	8
10	NEC	6	2	1	3	11	12	7
11	Heerenveen	6	1	3	2	7	9	6
12	Sparta Rotterdam	6	1	2	3	10	13	5
13	Telstar	6	1	2	3	5	11	5
14	FC Utrecht	6	1	2	3	11	19	5
15	Cambuur Leeuwarden	6	1	1	4	9	18	4
16	PEC Zwolle	6	1	1	4	6	17	4
17	Willem II	5	0	2	3	5	14	2
18	ADO Den Haag	6	0	1	5	6	16	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ajax	Excelsior
PSV	1-3 L	1-2 L
PEC Zwolle	2-0 W	2-2 D
FC Utrecht	0-0 D	5-0 W
FC Groningen	2-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ajax

DLDWDWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	5-1	11	6	W
05/09	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	1-3	1	6	L
30/08	Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	4-0	4	0	W
16/08	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	2-2	7	4	D
09/08	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-0	10	5	W
24/05	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
21/05	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
17/05	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
10/05	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
02/05	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	6	3	D

Excelsior

DWWDWWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	4	4	D
05/09	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	3-0	6	3	W
29/08	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
15/08	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-2	1	1	L
07/08	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie	3-0	4-0	8	0	W
17/05	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	3-2	2	4	W
10/05	FC Volendam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
02/05	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	3-2	8	0	W
26/04	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	5-0	3	3	W
12/04	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	2	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ajax vs Excelsior?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ajax win (75%). Probabilities: Ajax 75%, draw 15%, Excelsior 10%.

How many goals are expected in Ajax vs Excelsior?

The model expects 3.87 goals (Ajax 2.85 · Excelsior 1.02), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ajax vs Excelsior?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.