Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 20/09, 12:15

Prediction: Feyenoord vs FC Utrecht

Team pages: Feyenoord · FC Utrecht

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.69Total

Feyenoord2.67

FC Utrecht1.03

1X2

71% 17% 12%

Feyenoord Draw FC Utrecht

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Feyenoord 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

DWWDWWDWDW

FC Utrecht 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWWDLLDLDW

Head-to-head

Feyenoord 5–1 FC Utrecht (6 last)

FC Utrecht0-1Feyenoord
Feyenoord3-2FC Utrecht
Feyenoord1-2FC Utrecht
FC Utrecht0-2Feyenoord
Feyenoord4-2FC Utrecht
Feyenoord2-1FC Utrecht

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Feyenoord 1628 · FC Utrecht 1452

	Feyenoord	Draw	FC Utrecht
Our model	71%	17%	12%
Market	71%	17%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 3.69 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Feyenoord (rating 1628 vs 1452).
H2H favours Feyenoord: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Feyenoord	FC Utrecht
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.1	1.8 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.2	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6.2	2.6 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.1	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.30

X5.50

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.98

2 (+1.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.80

Under 3.52.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Pinn 1.30
X	5.50 → 5.50	Pinn 5.98 ★
2	8.00 → 8.00	Pinn 8.09

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.6% Pinnacle margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:14 +8’	1.30	5.50	8.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:47 +36’	1.30	5.98	8.09

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Feyenoord 5–0–1 FC Utrecht

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Utrecht	0-1 HT 0-1	Feyenoord
05/10/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Feyenoord	3-2 HT 1-0	FC Utrecht
12/01/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Feyenoord	1-2 HT 0-0	FC Utrecht
27/10/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Utrecht	0-2 HT 0-1	Feyenoord
31/03/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	Feyenoord	4-2 HT 1-2	FC Utrecht
20/12/23 Netherlands Cup	Feyenoord	2-1 HT 2-1	FC Utrecht

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	PSV	6	5	1	0	22	7	16
2	AZ	6	5	1	0	17	6	16
3	Feyenoord	6	4	2	0	20	7	14
4	FC Twente	6	4	1	1	12	5	13
5	Ajax	5	3	1	1	14	6	10
6	Excelsior	6	3	1	2	13	7	10
7	Fortuna Sittard	6	3	1	2	12	14	10
8	Go Ahead Eagles	6	2	3	1	15	13	9
9	FC Groningen	6	2	2	2	12	13	8
10	NEC	6	2	1	3	11	12	7
11	Heerenveen	6	1	3	2	7	9	6
12	Sparta Rotterdam	6	1	2	3	10	13	5
13	Telstar	6	1	2	3	5	11	5
14	FC Utrecht	6	1	2	3	11	19	5
15	Cambuur Leeuwarden	6	1	1	4	9	18	4
16	PEC Zwolle	6	1	1	4	6	17	4
17	Willem II	5	0	2	3	5	14	2
18	ADO Den Haag	6	0	1	5	6	16	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Feyenoord	FC Utrecht
Go Ahead Eagles	2-2 D	3-3 D
Sparta Rotterdam	1-0 W	3-3 D
AZ	1-1 D	1-4 L
Fortuna Sittard	2-1 W	2-0 W
FC Groningen	3-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Feyenoord (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Feyenoord

DWWDWWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	3-1	1	3	W
30/08	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	2-2	11	3	D
23/08	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie	4-0	5-2	3	1	W
16/08	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	2-2	6	0	D
09/08	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	1-0	10	4	W
17/05	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-0	12	0	W
10/05	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-1	7	1	D
03/05	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-1	8	6	W
25/04	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	3-1	3	2	W
12/04	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	1-1	1	7	D

FC Utrecht

WWWDLLDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-1	2	2	W
08/09	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	3-3	7	3	D
30/08	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	1-6	0	6	L
22/08	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	3-3	7	0	D
15/08	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-4	3	6	L
09/08	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-2	1	2	L
24/05	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
21/05	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	3-2	9	1	W
17/05	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
10/05	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-1	7	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Feyenoord vs FC Utrecht?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Feyenoord win (71%). Probabilities: Feyenoord 71%, draw 17%, FC Utrecht 12%.

How many goals are expected in Feyenoord vs FC Utrecht?

The model expects 3.69 goals (Feyenoord 2.67 · FC Utrecht 1.03), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs FC Utrecht?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.