Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 20/09, 14:30

Prediction: FC Twente vs PSV

Team pages: FC Twente · PSV

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.99Total

FC Twente1.88

PSV2.11

1X2

34% 22% 43%

FC Twente Draw PSV

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Twente 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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PSV 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Twente 0–6 PSV (6 last)

PSV5-1FC Twente
FC Twente0-2PSV
FC Twente1-3PSV
PSV6-1FC Twente
PSV1-0FC Twente
PSV3-1FC Twente

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Twente 1558 · PSV 1597

	FC Twente	Draw	PSV
Our model	35%	22%	43%
Market	34%	23%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.99 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours PSV: 6-0-0.
High corners: 13.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Twente	PSV
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.3	3.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	1.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/80/10%	80/10/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 7	3 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.70

X4.10

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.93

Under 3.751.88

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 2.70▼	Pinn 2.90 ★
X	4.20 → 4.10▼	Bet365 4.10
2	1.90 → 2.15▲	Pinn 2.23

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:22 +2’	3.10	4.20	1.90
01:21	2.70▼	4.10▼	2.15▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:02 +22’	2.89	3.89	2.24
01:09 +12’	2.90▲	3.90▲	2.23▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Twente 0–0–6 PSV

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	PSV	5-1 HT 2-1	FC Twente
17/08/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Twente	0-2 HT 0-1	PSV
24/04/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Twente	1-3 HT 1-1	PSV
06/12/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	PSV	6-1 HT 3-1	FC Twente
17/03/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	PSV	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Twente
17/01/24 Netherlands Cup	PSV	3-1 HT 1-0	FC Twente

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	PSV	6	5	1	0	22	7	16
2	AZ	6	5	1	0	17	6	16
3	Feyenoord	6	4	2	0	20	7	14
4	FC Twente	6	4	1	1	12	5	13
5	Ajax	5	3	1	1	14	6	10
6	Excelsior	6	3	1	2	13	7	10
7	Fortuna Sittard	6	3	1	2	12	14	10
8	Go Ahead Eagles	6	2	3	1	15	13	9
9	FC Groningen	6	2	2	2	12	13	8
10	NEC	6	2	1	3	11	12	7
11	Heerenveen	6	1	3	2	7	9	6
12	Sparta Rotterdam	6	1	2	3	10	13	5
13	Telstar	6	1	2	3	5	11	5
14	FC Utrecht	6	1	2	3	11	19	5
15	Cambuur Leeuwarden	6	1	1	4	9	18	4
16	PEC Zwolle	6	1	1	4	6	17	4
17	Willem II	5	0	2	3	5	14	2
18	ADO Den Haag	6	0	1	5	6	16	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Twente	PSV
FC Groningen	2-2 D	5-1 W
PEC Zwolle	3-1 W	6-1 W
Sparta Rotterdam	4-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: PSV (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Twente

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-0	12	4	W
09/09	Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
06/09	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	2-2	2-2	2	2	D
30/08	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	4-1	9	2	W
16/08	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	3-1	6	0	W
09/08	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
17/05	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	1-5	9	2	L
10/05	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	4-0	9	2	W
03/05	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	3	0	D
25/04	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	1-1	3	3	D

PSV

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	3-1	1	6	W
30/08	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	6-1	13	6	W
23/08	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	3-1	5-1	9	2	W
15/08	Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-1	7	1	W
08/08	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	2-2	9	2	D
17/05	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	5-1	11	2	W
10/05	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	4-1	4	0	W
02/05	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	4	3	D
23/04	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	6-1	4	2	W
11/04	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-0	5	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Twente vs PSV?

According to our model, the most likely result is an PSV win (43%). Probabilities: FC Twente 34%, draw 22%, PSV 43%.

How many goals are expected in FC Twente vs PSV?

The model expects 3.99 goals (FC Twente 1.88 · PSV 2.11), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Twente vs PSV?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.