Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 20/09, 16:45

Prediction: NEC vs Go Ahead Eagles

Team pages: NEC · Go Ahead Eagles

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.52Total

NEC2.16

Go Ahead Eagles1.37

1X2

55% 22% 23%

NEC Draw Go Ahead Eagles

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

NEC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDLWLWWLDL

Go Ahead Eagles 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDLLWDWLDD

Head-to-head

NEC 1–2–3 Go Ahead Eagles (6 last)

NEC2-1Go Ahead Eagles
Go Ahead Eagles1-1NEC
NEC2-3Go Ahead Eagles
Go Ahead Eagles5-0NEC
NEC1-2Go Ahead Eagles
Go Ahead Eagles2-2NEC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NEC 1454 · Go Ahead Eagles 1525

	NEC	Draw	Go Ahead Eagles
Our model	55%	22%	23%
Market	55%	22%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.52 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Go Ahead Eagles (rating 1454 vs 1525).
H2H favours Go Ahead Eagles: 3-2-1.
High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NEC	Go Ahead Eagles
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.7	1.9 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.5 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.7	2 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	2.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.20

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.39 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.1% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:09 +18’	1.73	4.20	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:19 +67’	1.71	4.11	4.39

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · NEC 1–2–3 Go Ahead Eagles

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	NEC	2-1 HT 2-0	Go Ahead Eagles
05/10/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Go Ahead Eagles	1-1 HT 0-1	NEC
09/03/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	NEC	2-3 HT 0-1	Go Ahead Eagles
07/12/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	Go Ahead Eagles	5-0 HT 4-0	NEC
23/05/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	NEC	1-2 HT 0-0	Go Ahead Eagles
28/01/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	Go Ahead Eagles	2-2 HT 0-1	NEC

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	PSV	6	5	1	0	22	7	16
2	AZ	6	5	1	0	17	6	16
3	Feyenoord	6	4	2	0	20	7	14
4	FC Twente	6	4	1	1	12	5	13
5	Ajax	5	3	1	1	14	6	10
6	Excelsior	6	3	1	2	13	7	10
7	Fortuna Sittard	6	3	1	2	12	14	10
8	Go Ahead Eagles	6	2	3	1	15	13	9
9	FC Groningen	6	2	2	2	12	13	8
10	NEC	6	2	1	3	11	12	7
11	Heerenveen	6	1	3	2	7	9	6
12	Sparta Rotterdam	6	1	2	3	10	13	5
13	Telstar	6	1	2	3	5	11	5
14	FC Utrecht	6	1	2	3	11	19	5
15	Cambuur Leeuwarden	6	1	1	4	9	18	4
16	PEC Zwolle	6	1	1	4	6	17	4
17	Willem II	5	0	2	3	5	14	2
18	ADO Den Haag	6	0	1	5	6	16	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NEC	Go Ahead Eagles
Feyenoord	1-3 L	2-2 D
Willem II	4-1 W	4-1 W
FC Groningen	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Go Ahead Eagles (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NEC

DDLWLWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-3	5	6	L
08/09	Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	2	4	D
05/09	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	1-3	1	3	L
29/08	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	3-1	7	4	W
15/08	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	4-1	2	1	W
08/08	Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	1-2	13	4	L
17/05	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	2-1	13	3	W
10/05	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-2	6	3	L
02/05	Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-1	9	5	D
25/04	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	1-1	9	3	D

Go Ahead Eagles

DDLLWDWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-1	9	1	D
08/09	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	3-3	5	3	D
29/08	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	2-5	4	0	L
23/08	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	3-1	5	3	W
16/08	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	2-2	6	0	D
08/08	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	4-1	6	3	W
17/05	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	1-2	4	3	L
10/05	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	1-4	8	0	L
03/05	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	2-2	8	6	D
23/04	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-0	5	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NEC vs Go Ahead Eagles?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NEC win (55%). Probabilities: NEC 55%, draw 22%, Go Ahead Eagles 23%.

How many goals are expected in NEC vs Go Ahead Eagles?

The model expects 3.52 goals (NEC 2.16 · Go Ahead Eagles 1.37), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in NEC vs Go Ahead Eagles?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.