Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 20/09, 14:30

Prediction: AZ vs Telstar

Team pages: AZ · Telstar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.34Total

AZ2.5

Telstar0.84

1X2

73% 17% 10%

AZ Draw Telstar

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

AZ 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

DDDDWWWWWD

Telstar 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDWWWLLDLD

Head-to-head

AZ 5–1 Telstar (6 last)

AZ2-1Telstar
Telstar0-1AZ
AZ2-1Telstar
Telstar3-0AZ
AZ3-0Telstar
Telstar0-1AZ

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AZ 1632 · Telstar 1453

	AZ	Draw	Telstar
Our model	73%	17%	10%
Market	73%	16%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 3.34 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AZ (rating 1632 vs 1453).
H2H favours AZ: 5-0-1.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AZ	Telstar
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.2	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 7.9	2 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.8 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.27

X5.75

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.85

2 (+1.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.90

Under 3.751.90

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.27	Bet365 1.27
X	5.75 → 5.75	Pinn 6.67 ★
2	9.00 → 9.00	Pinn 9.09

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.2% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:09 +16’	1.27	5.75	9.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:57 +268’	1.25	6.67	9.09

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · AZ 5–0–1 Telstar

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
04/03/26 Netherlands Cup	AZ	2-1 HT 0-0	Telstar
25/01/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	Telstar	0-1 HT 0-0	AZ
05/10/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	AZ	2-1 HT 2-0	Telstar
13/07/19 Europe Friendlies	Telstar	3-0 HT 1-0	AZ
16/07/16 Club Friendly List	AZ	3-0 HT 2-0	Telstar
29/10/15 Netherlands Cup	Telstar	0-1 HT 0-0	AZ

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	PSV	6	5	1	0	22	7	16
2	AZ	6	5	1	0	17	6	16
3	Feyenoord	6	4	2	0	20	7	14
4	FC Twente	6	4	1	1	12	5	13
5	Ajax	5	3	1	1	14	6	10
6	Excelsior	6	3	1	2	13	7	10
7	Fortuna Sittard	6	3	1	2	12	14	10
8	Go Ahead Eagles	6	2	3	1	15	13	9
9	FC Groningen	6	2	2	2	12	13	8
10	NEC	6	2	1	3	11	12	7
11	Heerenveen	6	1	3	2	7	9	6
12	Sparta Rotterdam	6	1	2	3	10	13	5
13	Telstar	6	1	2	3	5	11	5
14	FC Utrecht	6	1	2	3	11	19	5
15	Cambuur Leeuwarden	6	1	1	4	9	18	4
16	PEC Zwolle	6	1	1	4	6	17	4
17	Willem II	5	0	2	3	5	14	2
18	ADO Den Haag	6	0	1	5	6	16	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AZ	Telstar
Heerenveen	3-2 W	0-0 D
FC Twente	2-2 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: AZ (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AZ

DDDDWWWWWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	1-1	11	1	D
06/09	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	3-2	3	3	W
29/08	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	5-2	8	0	W
22/08	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-0	15	2	W
15/08	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	4-1	9	6	W
08/08	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-0	9	1	W
17/05	NAC Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	3-3	7	2	D
10/05	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	1-1	3	1	D
03/05	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	4	0	D
23/04	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-0	10	3	D

Telstar

WDWWWLLDLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
09/09	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
06/09	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-2	4	8	D
30/08	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-4	5	0	L
14/08	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-3	7	2	L
08/08	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	2-1	3	4	W
17/05	FC Volendam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-1	0	4	W
10/05	Heracles Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	3-0	6	5	W
02/05	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	1-1	0	5	D
22/04	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	4-1	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AZ vs Telstar?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AZ win (73%). Probabilities: AZ 73%, draw 17%, Telstar 10%.

How many goals are expected in AZ vs Telstar?

The model expects 3.34 goals (AZ 2.5 · Telstar 0.84), with a 56% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AZ vs Telstar?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.