Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 19/09, 18:45

Prediction: Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen

Team pages: Sparta Rotterdam · Heerenveen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.31Total

Sparta Rotterdam1.66

Heerenveen1.66

1X2

37% 26% 37%

Sparta Rotterdam Draw Heerenveen

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Sparta Rotterdam 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLWDLD

Heerenveen 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLWDLDLD

Head-to-head

Sparta Rotterdam 3–3 Heerenveen (6 last)

Heerenveen2-1Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam0-3Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam3-1Heerenveen
Heerenveen2-0Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam2-1Heerenveen
Heerenveen1-3Sparta Rotterdam

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sparta Rotterdam 1426 · Heerenveen 1521

	Sparta Rotterdam	Draw	Heerenveen
Our model	38%	25%	38%
Market	37%	26%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.31 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Heerenveen (rating 1426 vs 1521).
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sparta Rotterdam	Heerenveen
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.4	1.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.4	2.1 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.60

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 19:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 2.55▼	Bet365 2.55
X	3.70 → 3.60▼	Pinn 3.67
2	1.95 → 2.55▲	Pinn 2.66 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 6.2% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:57 +10’	3.40	3.70	1.95
08:43 +2’	3.10▼	3.60▼	2.15▲
17:08 +4’	2.70▼	3.60	2.40▲
19:25 +1’	2.55▼	3.60	2.55▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:54 +31’	2.60	3.62	2.50
20:19 +32’	2.49▼	3.67▲	2.66▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sparta Rotterdam 3–0–3 Heerenveen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	Heerenveen	2-1 HT 1-0	Sparta Rotterdam
14/12/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Sparta Rotterdam	0-3 HT 0-1	Heerenveen
12/04/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Sparta Rotterdam	3-1 HT 1-0	Heerenveen
26/10/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	Heerenveen	2-0 HT 1-0	Sparta Rotterdam
19/05/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	Sparta Rotterdam	2-1 HT 0-0	Heerenveen
27/08/23 Netherlands Eredivisie	Heerenveen	1-3 HT 0-1	Sparta Rotterdam

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	PSV	6	5	1	0	22	7	16
2	AZ	6	5	1	0	17	6	16
3	Feyenoord	6	4	2	0	20	7	14
4	FC Twente	6	4	1	1	12	5	13
5	Ajax	5	3	1	1	14	6	10
6	Excelsior	6	3	1	2	13	7	10
7	Fortuna Sittard	6	3	1	2	12	14	10
8	Go Ahead Eagles	6	2	3	1	15	13	9
9	FC Groningen	6	2	2	2	12	13	8
10	NEC	6	2	1	3	11	12	7
11	Heerenveen	6	1	3	2	7	9	6
12	Sparta Rotterdam	6	1	2	3	10	13	5
13	Telstar	6	1	2	3	5	11	5
14	FC Utrecht	6	1	2	3	11	19	5
15	Cambuur Leeuwarden	6	1	1	4	9	18	4
16	PEC Zwolle	6	1	1	4	6	17	4
17	Willem II	5	0	2	3	5	14	2
18	ADO Den Haag	6	0	1	5	6	16	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sparta Rotterdam	Heerenveen
PEC Zwolle	2-2 D	0-2 L
FC Utrecht	3-3 D	2-3 L
Telstar	3-1 W	0-0 D
FC Twente	0-4 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sparta Rotterdam (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sparta Rotterdam

LLDLLLWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	15	2	D
29/08	Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-2	4	3	L
22/08	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	3-3	5	0	D
14/08	Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	3-1	5	2	W
09/08	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
17/05	Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	2-3	5	4	L
10/05	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-4	2	2	L
03/05	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-2	6	6	D
22/04	Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	1-4	5	2	L
11/04	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-2	2	7	L

Heerenveen

WLDLWDLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
06/09	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	2-3	4	3	L
30/08	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-2	7	0	D
22/08	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
16/08	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	2-2	2	4	D
09/08	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
21/05	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-3	6	1	L
17/05	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-0	10	3	D
11/05	NAC Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-2	2	1	L
03/05	FC Volendam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-0	5	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sparta Rotterdam win (37%). Probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 37%, draw 26%, Heerenveen 37%.

How many goals are expected in Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen?

The model expects 3.31 goals (Sparta Rotterdam 1.66 · Heerenveen 1.66), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.