Football · Scotland Premiership · 19/09, 16:00

Prediction: St Mirren vs Dundee Utd

Team pages: St Mirren · Dundee Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

St Mirren1.53

Dundee Utd1.33

1X2

41% 27% 32%

St Mirren Draw Dundee Utd

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

St Mirren 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDWWDWLL

Dundee Utd 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LLDDDLLWLD

Head-to-head

St Mirren 2–1–3 Dundee Utd (6 last)

St Mirren1-1Dundee Utd
Dundee Utd2-1St Mirren
St Mirren2-0Dundee Utd
Dundee Utd3-1St Mirren
Dundee Utd0-2St Mirren
St Mirren0-1Dundee Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · St Mirren 1502 · Dundee Utd 1468

	St Mirren	Draw	Dundee Utd
Our model	41%	27%	32%
Market	41%	27%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Dundee Utd: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	St Mirren	Dundee Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.1	0.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.6	2.2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.50

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.37 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.66
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:51 +7’	2.25	3.50	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:12 +166’	2.37	3.66	2.81

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · St Mirren 2–1–3 Dundee Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Scotland Premiership	St Mirren	1-1 HT 0-1	Dundee Utd
03/03/26 Scotland Premiership	Dundee Utd	2-1 HT 1-0	St Mirren
06/12/25 Scotland Premiership	St Mirren	2-0 HT 1-0	Dundee Utd
25/10/25 Scotland Premiership	Dundee Utd	3-1 HT 1-1	St Mirren
10/05/25 Scotland Premiership	Dundee Utd	0-2 HT 0-1	St Mirren
11/01/25 Scotland Premiership	St Mirren	0-1 HT 0-0	Dundee Utd

Standings · Scotland Premiership

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Celtic	6	6	0	0	14	3	18
2	Rangers	6	4	1	1	7	4	13
3	Hearts	5	4	0	1	12	5	12
4	St Mirren	6	3	1	2	8	6	10
5	Motherwell	5	2	2	1	8	5	8
6	Dundee	6	2	1	3	7	6	7
7	St Johnstone	6	2	1	3	8	9	7
8	Hibernian	5	2	0	3	7	9	6
9	Dundee Utd	6	1	2	3	6	11	5
10	Aberdeen	5	1	1	3	2	7	4
11	Falkirk	5	0	2	3	3	7	2
12	Kilmarnock	5	0	1	4	4	14	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	St Mirren	Dundee Utd
Rangers	0-1 L	1-1 D
Kilmarnock	1-0 W	4-0 W
Motherwell	3-3 D	0-3 L
Falkirk	2-0 W	1-1 D
Aberdeen	2-0 W	0-2 L
Dundee	0-1 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: St Mirren (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

St Mirren

LLWDWWDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/09	Rangers Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-1	0	2	L
05/09	Celtic Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-2	6	3	L
02/09	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
30/08	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	3-2	3-3	7	4	D
08/08	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
01/08	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
17/05	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	0-1	1-1	10	2	D
12/05	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
09/05	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-3	1	4	L
02/05	Dundee Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-1	6	3	L

Dundee Utd

LLDDDLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	0-1	1-1	14	5	D
02/09	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-3	3	2	L
29/08	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	3-0	4-0	5	6	W
22/08	Dundee Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-2	6	7	L
09/08	Hearts Scotland Premiership	0-2	0-4	2	3	L
31/07	Rangers Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
17/05	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-1	2	2	D
12/05	Livingston Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-0	7	6	D
09/05	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
02/05	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-3	8	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in St Mirren vs Dundee Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a St Mirren win (41%). Probabilities: St Mirren 41%, draw 27%, Dundee Utd 32%.

How many goals are expected in St Mirren vs Dundee Utd?

The model expects 2.86 goals (St Mirren 1.53 · Dundee Utd 1.33), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in St Mirren vs Dundee Utd?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.