Football · Scotland Premiership · 19/09, 16:00

Prediction: Dundee vs Motherwell

Team pages: Dundee · Motherwell

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

Dundee1.12

Motherwell1.4

1X2

30% 28% 43%

Dundee Draw Motherwell

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Dundee 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWWLDL

Motherwell 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDLWWDDWL

Head-to-head

Dundee 2–1–3 Motherwell (6 last)

Dundee2-1Motherwell
Motherwell1-0Dundee
Dundee1-1Motherwell
Dundee1-2Motherwell
Motherwell2-1Dundee
Dundee5-1Motherwell

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dundee 1501 · Motherwell 1541

	Dundee	Draw	Motherwell
Our model	29%	29%	42%
Market	30%	27%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Motherwell (rating 1501 vs 1541).
H2H favours Motherwell: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dundee	Motherwell
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.1	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.3	2.6 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.50

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:58 +1’	3.10	3.50	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dundee 2–1–3 Motherwell

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Scotland Premiership	Dundee	2-1 HT 1-0	Motherwell
20/12/25 Scotland Premiership	Motherwell	1-0 HT 0-0	Dundee
13/09/25 Scotland Premiership	Dundee	1-1 HT 0-1	Motherwell
03/05/25 Scotland Premiership	Dundee	1-2 HT 1-0	Motherwell
26/02/25 Scotland Premiership	Motherwell	2-1 HT 1-0	Dundee
04/12/24 Scotland Premiership	Dundee	5-1 HT 1-1	Motherwell

Standings · Scotland Premiership

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Celtic	6	6	0	0	14	3	18
2	Rangers	6	4	1	1	7	4	13
3	Hearts	5	4	0	1	12	5	12
4	St Mirren	6	3	1	2	8	6	10
5	Motherwell	5	2	2	1	8	5	8
6	Dundee	6	2	1	3	7	6	7
7	St Johnstone	6	2	1	3	8	9	7
8	Hibernian	5	2	0	3	7	9	6
9	Dundee Utd	6	1	2	3	6	11	5
10	Aberdeen	5	1	1	3	2	7	4
11	Falkirk	5	0	2	3	3	7	2
12	Kilmarnock	5	0	1	4	4	14	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dundee	Motherwell
Hearts	1-2 L	1-1 D
Hibernian	1-2 L	2-1 W
Dundee Utd	2-0 W	3-0 W
Celtic	0-1 L	2-3 L
St Mirren	1-0 W	3-3 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Motherwell (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dundee

WWLWLWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Hearts Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-2	2	6	L
02/09	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
30/08	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	0-1	1-2	3	2	L
22/08	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-0	6	7	W
08/08	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
03/08	Celtic Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
17/05	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	1-2	3-2	7	0	W
12/05	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-3	2	7	L
09/05	Livingston Scotland Premiership	1-0	3-0	7	2	W
02/05	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-0	5	3	W

Motherwell

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Rangers Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-1	5	0	L
02/09	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	1-0	3-0	9	2	W
30/08	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	2-3	3-3	7	4	D
09/08	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
02/08	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
16/05	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-0	4	10	W
13/05	Celtic Scotland Premiership	1-1	2-3	4	3	L
09/05	Hearts Scotland Premiership	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
02/05	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-1	5	9	L
26/04	Rangers Scotland Premiership	2-0	3-2	5	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dundee vs Motherwell?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Motherwell win (43%). Probabilities: Dundee 30%, draw 28%, Motherwell 43%.

How many goals are expected in Dundee vs Motherwell?

The model expects 2.53 goals (Dundee 1.12 · Motherwell 1.4), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Dundee vs Motherwell?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.