Prediction: Kilmarnock vs Hearts
Team pages: Kilmarnock · Hearts
- Kilmarnock1-0Hearts
- Hearts1-1Kilmarnock
- Kilmarnock0-3Hearts
- Kilmarnock0-1Hearts
- Hearts3-2Kilmarnock
- Kilmarnock1-0Hearts
| Kilmarnock | Draw | Hearts | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 20% | 25% | 55% |
| Market | 21% | 24% | 56% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hearts (rating 1503 vs 1607).
- H2H favours Hearts: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Kilmarnock | Hearts | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.7 | 2.1 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1 | 1.1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.5 | 3.7 / 7.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.1 | 4.2 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Kilmarnock 2–1–3 Hearts
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 Scotland Premiership | Kilmarnock | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Hearts |
| 03/12/25 Scotland Premiership | Hearts | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Kilmarnock |
| 18/10/25 Scotland Premiership | Kilmarnock | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Hearts |
| 18/05/25 Scotland Premiership | Kilmarnock | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Hearts |
| 25/01/25 Scotland Premiership | Hearts | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Kilmarnock |
| 15/12/24 Scotland Premiership | Kilmarnock | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Hearts |
Standings · Scotland Premiership
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 18 |
| 2 | Rangers | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 13 |
| 3 | Hearts | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | St Mirren | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Motherwell | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 8 |
| 6 | Dundee | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| 7 | St Johnstone | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 7 |
| 8 | Hibernian | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 6 |
| 9 | Dundee Utd | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 5 |
| 10 | Aberdeen | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 4 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 1 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Kilmarnock | Hearts |
|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Dundee Utd | 0-4 L | 4-0 W |
| Celtic | 1-5 L | 1-3 L |
| St Johnstone | 3-4 L | 2-1 W |
| Dundee | 3-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 3 L | 3 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Hearts (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kilmarnock
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Aberdeen Scotland Premiership |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 02/09 | St Mirren Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership |
0-3 | 0-4 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 09/08 | Celtic Scotland Premiership |
0-3 | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 02/08 | St Johnstone Scotland Premiership |
1-1 | 3-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Livingston Scotland Premiership |
2-1 | 4-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 12/05 | Dundee Scotland Premiership |
0-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | St Mirren Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Aberdeen Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
Hearts
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Dundee Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 2-1 | 14 | 6 | W |
| 03/09 | Hibernian Scotland Premiership |
2-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 29/08 | St Johnstone Scotland Premiership |
2-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 09/08 | Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership |
2-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Aberdeen Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 16/05 | Celtic Scotland Premiership |
1-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 13/05 | Falkirk Scotland Premiership |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | Motherwell Scotland Premiership |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 04/05 | Rangers Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | Hibernian Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kilmarnock vs Hearts?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Hearts win (55%). Probabilities: Kilmarnock 20%, draw 24%, Hearts 55%.
How many goals are expected in Kilmarnock vs Hearts?
The model expects 2.92 goals (Kilmarnock 1.05 · Hearts 1.86), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Kilmarnock vs Hearts?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.