Football · Scotland Premiership · 15/09, 20:45

Prediction: Motherwell vs Aberdeen

Team pages: Motherwell · Aberdeen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

Motherwell1.5

Aberdeen0.94

1X2

50% 27% 23%

Motherwell Draw Aberdeen

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Motherwell 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDLWWDDWL

Aberdeen 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WDWLLWLLLD

Head-to-head

Motherwell 3–1–2 Aberdeen (6 last)

Aberdeen2-0Motherwell
Motherwell2-0Aberdeen
Aberdeen1-1Motherwell
Motherwell2-0Aberdeen
Aberdeen0-1Motherwell
Aberdeen4-1Motherwell

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Motherwell 1523 · Aberdeen 1530

	Motherwell	Draw	Aberdeen
Our model	49%	28%	22%
Market	51%	25%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Motherwell: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Motherwell	Aberdeen
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	0.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.5	2.2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.70

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Pinn 1.88
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.02 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.2% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
01:45 +3’	1.83	3.70	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:17 +272’	1.88	3.70	4.02

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Motherwell 3–1–2 Aberdeen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/02/26 Scotland FA Cup	Aberdeen	2-0 HT 1-0	Motherwell
15/02/26 Scotland Premiership	Motherwell	2-0 HT 1-0	Aberdeen
09/11/25 Scotland Premiership	Aberdeen	1-1 HT 0-0	Motherwell
27/09/25 Scotland Premiership	Motherwell	2-0 HT 0-0	Aberdeen
20/09/25 Scotland League Cup	Aberdeen	0-1 HT 0-0	Motherwell
29/03/25 Scotland Premiership	Aberdeen	4-1 HT 2-1	Motherwell

Standings · Scotland Premiership

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Celtic	6	6	0	0	14	3	18
2	Rangers	6	4	1	1	7	4	13
3	Hearts	5	4	0	1	12	5	12
4	St Mirren	6	3	1	2	8	6	10
5	Motherwell	5	2	2	1	8	5	8
6	Dundee	6	2	1	3	7	6	7
7	St Johnstone	6	2	1	3	8	9	7
8	Hibernian	5	2	0	3	7	9	6
9	Dundee Utd	6	1	2	3	6	11	5
10	Aberdeen	5	1	1	3	2	7	4
11	Falkirk	5	0	2	3	3	7	2
12	Kilmarnock	5	0	1	4	4	14	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Motherwell	Aberdeen
Rangers	0-1 L	0-1 L
Dundee Utd	3-0 W	2-0 W
St Mirren	3-3 D	0-2 L
Celtic	2-3 L	0-3 L
Hearts	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Motherwell (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Motherwell

WLDLWWDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Rangers Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-1	5	0	L
02/09	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	1-0	3-0	9	2	W
30/08	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	2-3	3-3	7	4	D
09/08	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
02/08	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
16/05	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-0	4	10	W
13/05	Celtic Scotland Premiership	1-1	2-3	4	3	L
09/05	Hearts Scotland Premiership	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
02/05	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-1	5	9	L
26/04	Rangers Scotland Premiership	2-0	3-2	5	2	W

Aberdeen

WDWLLWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
02/09	Celtic Scotland Premiership	0-3	0-3	5	2	L
30/08	Rangers Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-1	6	9	L
08/08	Dundee Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
01/08	Hearts Scotland Premiership	0-1	2-1	4	6	W
17/05	Dundee Scotland Premiership	2-1	2-3	2	0	L
12/05	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
09/05	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
01/05	Livingston Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-2	3	4	D
25/04	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-0	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Motherwell vs Aberdeen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Motherwell win (50%). Probabilities: Motherwell 50%, draw 27%, Aberdeen 23%.

How many goals are expected in Motherwell vs Aberdeen?

The model expects 2.44 goals (Motherwell 1.5 · Aberdeen 0.94), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Motherwell vs Aberdeen?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.