Football · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2 · 16/09, 20:00

Prediction: Gramadense vs Brasil de Farroupilha

Team pages: Gramadense · Brasil de Farroupilha

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.15Total

Gramadense1.11

Brasil de Farroupilha1.04

1X2

36% 32% 32%

Gramadense Draw Brasil de Farroupilha

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Gramadense 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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Brasil de Farroupilha 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DLWDDDWWDW

Head-to-head

Gramadense 2–2–0 Brasil de Farroupilha (4 last)

Brasil de Farroupilha0-1Gramadense
Gramadense2-2Brasil de Farroupilha
Brasil de Farroupilha0-3Gramadense
Brasil de Farroupilha1-1Gramadense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gramadense 1459 · Brasil de Farroupilha 1530

	Gramadense	Draw	Brasil de Farroupilha
Our model	36%	32%	32%
Market	36%	32%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.15 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brasil de Farroupilha (rating 1459 vs 1530).
H2H favours Gramadense: 2-2-0.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gramadense	Brasil de Farroupilha
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.5	1.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.9 / 7	1.8 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.3	6.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.50

X2.80

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 22.00

Under 21.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
22:35 +4’	2.50	2.80	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gramadense 2–2–0 Brasil de Farroupilha

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/06/26 Brazil Copa Gaucho	Brasil de Farroupilha	0-1 HT 0-0	Gramadense
30/05/26 Brazil Copa Gaucho	Gramadense	2-2 HT 2-0	Brasil de Farroupilha
05/06/25 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Brasil de Farroupilha	0-3 HT 0-2	Gramadense
28/09/22 Brazil Copa Gaucho	Brasil de Farroupilha	1-1 HT 0-0	Gramadense

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Veranopolis	11	6	3	2	11	5	21
2	Passo Fundo RS	11	5	5	1	14	6	20
3	Santa Cruz RS	11	5	5	1	11	5	20
4	Uniao Frederiquense	11	5	4	2	10	5	19
5	CE Bento Goncalves	11	4	6	1	13	8	18
6	Brasil de Farroupilha	10	4	5	1	11	7	17
7	APAFUT	11	4	4	3	13	9	16
8	Aimore RS	11	4	4	3	10	10	16
9	Brasil de Pelotas	10	3	5	2	8	6	14
10	Guarani de Venancio Aires	11	3	4	4	12	16	13
11	Sport Clube Gaucho	11	3	3	5	9	9	12
12	EC Pelotas	10	2	5	3	9	12	11
13	GE Bage	11	2	4	5	8	15	10
14	GE Gloria	10	2	3	5	7	10	9
15	Gramadense	11	1	4	6	7	16	7
16	Lajeadense	11	0	2	9	4	18	2

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gramadense	Brasil de Farroupilha
CE Bento Goncalves	1-3 L	1-1 D
Passo Fundo RS	0-2 L	1-0 W
Guarani de Venancio Aires	2-2 D	3-3 D
APAFUT	0-0 D	1-0 W
Lajeadense	1-1 D	3-1 W
Santa Cruz RS	1-2 L	0-1 L
Brasil de Pelotas	1-1 D	2-2 D
Uniao Frederiquense	0-2 L	1-1 D
Sport Clube Gaucho	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 4 L	4 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Brasil de Farroupilha (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gramadense

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	CE Bento Goncalves Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-2	1-3	8	2	L
10/09	Passo Fundo RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-2	8	7	L
05/09	Guarani de Venancio Aires Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-2	2-2	10	9	D
02/09	Aimore RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-2	9	6	L
23/08	APAFUT Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
20/08	Lajeadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-1	8	5	D
16/08	Santa Cruz RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-2	1	8	L
13/08	Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	1-1	8	3	D
09/08	Uniao Frederiquense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
07/08	Sport Clube Gaucho Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-0	–	–	W

Brasil de Farroupilha

DLWDDDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	APAFUT Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	1-0	1	8	W
10/09	CE Bento Goncalves Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	1-1	3	1	D
06/09	Passo Fundo RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
03/09	Sport Clube Gaucho Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	1-0	8	6	W
28/08	Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-2	2-2	5	9	D
23/08	Guarani de Venancio Aires Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	2-2	3-3	5	5	D
21/08	Uniao Frederiquense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	1-1	2	8	D
13/08	Lajeadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
08/08	Santa Cruz RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-1	2	13	L
06/08	Veranopolis Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gramadense vs Brasil de Farroupilha?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gramadense win (36%). Probabilities: Gramadense 36%, draw 32%, Brasil de Farroupilha 32%.

How many goals are expected in Gramadense vs Brasil de Farroupilha?

The model expects 2.15 goals (Gramadense 1.11 · Brasil de Farroupilha 1.04), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Gramadense vs Brasil de Farroupilha?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.