Football · China Division 1 · 29/08, 14:00

Prediction: Dingnan Ganlian FC vs Suzhou Dongwu

Team pages: Dingnan Ganlian FC · Suzhou Dongwu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

Dingnan Ganlian FC1.61

Suzhou Dongwu1.23

1X2

45% 27% 28%

Dingnan Ganlian FC Draw Suzhou Dongwu

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Dingnan Ganlian FC 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWDLDDLD

Suzhou Dongwu 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DLDLDDWWDD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dingnan Ganlian FC 1482 · Suzhou Dongwu 1463

	Dingnan Ganlian FC	Draw	Suzhou Dongwu
Our model	45%	27%	28%
Market	45%	28%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dingnan Ganlian FC	Suzhou Dongwu
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.6	1.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 7.6	1.2 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.25

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.39 ★
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
02:14 +3’	2.00	3.25	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:56	2.42	3.09	2.94
05:37 +1’	2.39▼	3.09	2.97▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	20	14	4	2	41	17	46
2	Shenzhen Juniors	20	10	6	4	31	22	36
3	Nantong Zhiyun	19	9	8	2	25	14	35
4	Yanbian Longding	20	9	8	3	30	18	35
5	Guangxi Hengchen	19	9	6	4	34	24	33
6	Shaanxi Union	19	7	5	7	28	21	26
7	Ningbo Professional FC	19	8	4	7	25	25	25
8	Wuxi Wugo	18	6	5	7	29	23	23
9	Changchun Yatai	19	8	2	9	33	34	22
10	Dingnan Jiangxi United	20	4	10	6	30	38	22
11	Dalian K'un City	19	5	6	8	25	30	21
12	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	20	5	6	9	16	24	21
13	Nanjing City	20	5	6	9	19	24	21
14	Suzhou Dongwu	20	4	7	9	17	26	16
15	Meizhou Hakka	20	6	2	12	20	40	11
16	Foshan Nanshi	20	2	5	13	20	43	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dingnan Ganlian FC	Suzhou Dongwu
Guangdong GZ-Power	1-3 L	2-2 D
Meizhou Hakka	2-2 D	1-0 W
Changchun Yatai	2-3 L	2-1 W
Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	2-1 W	1-1 D
Dalian K'un City	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Suzhou Dongwu (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dingnan Ganlian FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/06	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	2-2	3-3	10	7	D
13/06	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-2	1-3	7	3	L
30/05	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	2-1	2-2	7	3	D
23/05	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	0-1	1-1	9	3	D
09/05	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	1-1	2-3	6	4	L
02/05	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	1-1	1-1	5	0	D
25/04	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	1-0	1-0	3	8	W
19/04	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-0	2-1	6	0	W
12/04	Nanjing City China Division 1	0-1	1-1	17	4	D
04/04	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	0-0	1-1	6	1	D

Suzhou Dongwu

DLDLDDWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	0-2	3-3	3	2	D
16/08	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
08/08	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
02/08	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
26/07	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
17/07	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
11/07	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	1-0	1-3	2	4	L
04/07	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-0	2-2	3	5	D
28/06	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	0-2	1-2	10	4	L
13/06	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-1	1-1	0	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dingnan Ganlian FC vs Suzhou Dongwu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dingnan Ganlian FC win (45%). Probabilities: Dingnan Ganlian FC 45%, draw 27%, Suzhou Dongwu 28%.

How many goals are expected in Dingnan Ganlian FC vs Suzhou Dongwu?

The model expects 2.84 goals (Dingnan Ganlian FC 1.61 · Suzhou Dongwu 1.23), with a 57% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Dingnan Ganlian FC vs Suzhou Dongwu?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.