Football · China Division 1 · 06/09, 13:30

Prediction: Guangxi Hengchen vs Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC

Team pages: Guangxi Hengchen · Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Guangxi Hengchen1.99

Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC0.98

1X2

60% 23% 17%

Guangxi Hengchen Draw Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Guangxi Hengchen 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWDWLWDW

Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLLDDDWWWW

Head-to-head

Guangxi Hengchen 1–0 Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC (1 last)

Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC0-3Guangxi Hengchen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guangxi Hengchen 1561 · Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC 1526

	Guangxi Hengchen	Draw	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC
Our model	60%	23%	17%
Market	60%	23%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guangxi Hengchen	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.4	1.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	1.1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	5.1 / 7	1.2 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.50

X3.90

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.88

2 (+1)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.50▲	Pinn 1.56
X	4.00 → 3.90▼	Bet365 3.90
2	6.50 → 5.25▼	Pinn 5.52 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
01:46 +7’	1.40	4.00	6.50
03:35 +4’	1.50▲	3.90▼	5.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:38	1.56	3.87	5.52

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guangxi Hengchen 1–0–0 Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 China Division 1	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	0-3 HT 0-2	Guangxi Hengchen

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	21	15	4	2	44	17	49
2	Shenzhen Juniors	21	11	6	4	33	23	39
3	Guangxi Hengchen	20	10	6	4	36	24	36
4	Nantong Zhiyun	20	9	8	3	27	17	35
5	Yanbian Longding	21	9	8	4	31	21	35
6	Shaanxi Union	20	8	5	7	31	22	29
7	Ningbo Professional FC	20	8	5	7	26	26	26
8	Dalian K'un City	20	6	6	8	28	32	24
9	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	21	6	6	9	18	24	24
10	Wuxi Wugo	19	6	5	8	29	25	23
11	Changchun Yatai	20	8	2	10	33	37	22
12	Dingnan Ganlian FC	21	4	10	7	33	42	22
13	Nanjing City	21	5	6	10	19	26	21
14	Suzhou Dongwu	21	5	7	9	21	29	19
15	Meizhou Hakka	21	6	3	12	21	41	12
16	Foshan Nanshi	21	2	5	14	21	45	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guangxi Hengchen	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC
Nanjing City	2-0 W	2-1 W
Guangdong GZ-Power	0-2 L	0-2 L
Ningbo Professional FC	4-2 W	1-2 L
Shaanxi Union	3-0 W	2-1 W
Changchun Yatai	2-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Guangxi Hengchen (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guangxi Hengchen

DWWWDWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Nanjing City China Division 1	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
22/08	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	2-0	3-3	9	2	D
15/08	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	1-0	1-0	9	1	W
09/08	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
01/08	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	1-1	4-2	2	5	W
26/07	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	2-1	4-4	8	4	D
18/07	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-0	3-0	13	3	W
05/07	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	0-1	3-1	7	0	W
27/06	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	0-0	2-1	6	3	W
14/06	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-0	1-1	12	4	D

Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC

WLLDDDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	2-0	2-0	7	3	W
22/08	Dingnan Jiangxi United China Division 1	2-1	2-1	2	5	W
16/08	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	2-0	2-1	0	6	W
08/08	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	1-0	2-1	3	6	W
02/08	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	1-0	2-2	4	3	D
25/07	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
17/07	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	0-0	0-0	6	9	D
11/07	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-0	0-2	1	3	L
04/07	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	1-0	1-2	0	4	L
27/06	Nanjing City China Division 1	1-1	2-1	4	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guangxi Hengchen vs Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guangxi Hengchen win (60%). Probabilities: Guangxi Hengchen 60%, draw 23%, Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC 17%.

How many goals are expected in Guangxi Hengchen vs Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Guangxi Hengchen 1.99 · Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC 0.98), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Guangxi Hengchen vs Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.