Football · China Division 1 · 05/09, 13:00

Prediction: Changchun Yatai vs Ningbo Professional FC

Team pages: Changchun Yatai · Ningbo Professional FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Changchun Yatai1.74

Ningbo Professional FC1.34

1X2

45% 27% 28%

Changchun Yatai Draw Ningbo Professional FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Changchun Yatai 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLWDLLWL

Ningbo Professional FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLLDLD

Head-to-head

Changchun Yatai 0–1 Ningbo Professional FC (1 last)

Ningbo Professional FC3-1Changchun Yatai

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Changchun Yatai 1473 · Ningbo Professional FC 1504

	Changchun Yatai	Draw	Ningbo Professional FC
Our model	46%	26%	29%
Market	45%	28%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Changchun Yatai	Ningbo Professional FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.9	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.9	1.5 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.25

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.03
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.40 ★
2	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.36

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
02:51 +2’	2.00	3.25	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:52 +1’	2.03	3.40	3.36

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Changchun Yatai 0–0–1 Ningbo Professional FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 China Division 1	Ningbo Professional FC	3-1 HT 3-1	Changchun Yatai

Standings · China Division 1

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	21	15	4	2	44	17	49
2	Shenzhen Juniors	21	11	6	4	33	23	39
3	Guangxi Hengchen	20	10	6	4	36	24	36
4	Nantong Zhiyun	20	9	8	3	27	17	35
5	Yanbian Longding	21	9	8	4	31	21	35
6	Shaanxi Union	20	8	5	7	31	22	29
7	Ningbo Professional FC	20	8	5	7	26	26	26
8	Dalian K'un City	20	6	6	8	28	32	24
9	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	21	6	6	9	18	24	24
10	Wuxi Wugo	19	6	5	8	29	25	23
11	Changchun Yatai	20	8	2	10	33	37	22
12	Dingnan Jiangxi United	21	4	10	7	33	42	22
13	Nanjing City	21	5	6	10	19	26	21
14	Suzhou Dongwu	21	5	7	9	21	29	19
15	Meizhou Hakka	21	6	3	12	21	41	12
16	Foshan Nanshi	21	2	5	14	21	45	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Changchun Yatai	Ningbo Professional FC
Guangdong GZ-Power	0-3 L	1-2 L
Foshan Nanshi	6-0 W	1-0 W
Suzhou Dongwu	1-2 L	2-1 W
Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	2-2 D	2-1 W
Nanjing City	2-1 W	2-1 W
Meizhou Hakka	3-1 W	1-1 D
Guangxi Hengchen	1-2 L	2-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Changchun Yatai

WLWLWDLLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-2	0-3	7	6	L
23/08	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	5-0	6-0	2	0	W
14/08	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-0	1-2	5	3	L
08/08	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-0	1-2	2	3	L
02/08	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-1	2-2	2	3	D
25/07	Nanjing City China Division 1	2-0	2-1	4	3	W
17/07	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-2	1-5	6	1	L
05/07	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	2-1	3-1	2	0	W
27/06	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	0-0	1-2	7	3	L
13/06	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	2-1	2-1	2	0	W

Ningbo Professional FC

WWWWWLLDLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
22/08	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	1-1	2-3	7	5	L
16/08	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
01/08	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	1-1	2-4	8	5	L
25/07	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-0	1-2	8	2	L
18/07	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
13/07	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
04/07	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-1	2-1	7	4	W
28/06	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	2-0	2-1	1	4	W
13/06	Nanjing City China Division 1	1-1	2-1	1	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Changchun Yatai vs Ningbo Professional FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Changchun Yatai win (45%). Probabilities: Changchun Yatai 45%, draw 27%, Ningbo Professional FC 28%.

How many goals are expected in Changchun Yatai vs Ningbo Professional FC?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Changchun Yatai 1.74 · Ningbo Professional FC 1.34), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Ningbo Professional FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.