Football · China Division 1 · 05/09, 13:30

Prediction: Foshan Nanshi vs Dalian K'un City

Team pages: Foshan Nanshi · Dalian K'un City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Foshan Nanshi1.23

Dalian K'un City1.85

1X2

24% 25% 51%

Foshan Nanshi Draw Dalian K'un City

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Foshan Nanshi 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLDLLLL

Dalian K'un City 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLDDLLWW

Head-to-head

Foshan Nanshi 1–1–1 Dalian K'un City (3 last)

Dalian K'un City2-2Foshan Nanshi
Foshan Nanshi2-0Dalian K'un City
Dalian K'un City1-0Foshan Nanshi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Foshan Nanshi 1398 · Dalian K'un City 1479

	Foshan Nanshi	Draw	Dalian K'un City
Our model	24%	25%	51%
Market	24%	26%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dalian K'un City (rating 1398 vs 1479).
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Foshan Nanshi	Dalian K'un City
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2.4	1.7 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 1.8	0.9 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/20/80%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.7	3 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.80

X3.50

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.80

2 (-0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 10:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.80▲	Pinn 3.98 ★
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.63
2	1.91 → 1.80▼	Pinn 1.81

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 10.4% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:56 +10’	3.40	3.40	1.91
02:51 +3’	4.10▲	3.50▲	1.70▼
10:11 +3’	3.80▼	3.50	1.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:53 +1’	4.35	3.76	1.71
04:50	3.98▼	3.63▼	1.81▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Foshan Nanshi 1–1–1 Dalian K'un City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 China Division 1	Dalian K'un City	2-2 HT 1-2	Foshan Nanshi
04/10/25 China Division 1	Foshan Nanshi	2-0 HT 0-0	Dalian K'un City
25/05/25 China Division 1	Dalian K'un City	1-0 HT 0-0	Foshan Nanshi

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	21	15	4	2	44	17	49
2	Shenzhen Juniors	21	11	6	4	33	23	39
3	Guangxi Hengchen	20	10	6	4	36	24	36
4	Nantong Zhiyun	20	9	8	3	27	17	35
5	Yanbian Longding	21	9	8	4	31	21	35
6	Shaanxi Union	20	8	5	7	31	22	29
7	Ningbo Professional FC	20	8	5	7	26	26	26
8	Dalian K'un City	20	6	6	8	28	32	24
9	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	21	6	6	9	18	24	24
10	Wuxi Wugo	19	6	5	8	29	25	23
11	Changchun Yatai	20	8	2	10	33	37	22
12	Dingnan Ganlian FC	21	4	10	7	33	42	22
13	Nanjing City	21	5	6	10	19	26	21
14	Suzhou Dongwu	21	5	7	9	21	29	19
15	Meizhou Hakka	21	6	3	12	21	41	12
16	Foshan Nanshi	21	2	5	14	21	45	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Foshan Nanshi	Dalian K'un City
Shenzhen Juniors	1-2 L	5-4 W
Meizhou Hakka	2-3 L	0-2 L
Wuxi Wugo	0-2 L	2-1 W
Nantong Zhiyun	1-2 L	3-2 W
Nanjing City	1-3 L	2-0 W
Yanbian Longding	0-2 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 6 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Dalian K'un City (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Foshan Nanshi

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-2	1-2	3	4	L
23/08	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	0-5	0-6	4	0	L
16/08	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-2	1-2	10	6	L
08/08	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	0-1	2-3	6	5	L
01/08	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
25/07	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-0	0-2	9	4	L
17/07	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	1-1	1-2	4	2	L
13/07	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
05/07	Nanjing City China Division 1	0-3	1-3	2	2	L
27/06	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	0-2	0-2	3	5	L

Dalian K'un City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	2-0	3-2	6	5	W
22/08	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
15/08	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	0-1	1-3	10	5	L
08/08	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	0-2	1-2	11	1	L
01/08	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	2-1	2-2	3	6	D
26/07	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
18/07	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	0-2	0-2	9	2	L
11/07	Nanjing City China Division 1	0-0	2-0	1	2	W
05/07	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	1-0	1-3	3	0	L
27/06	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	3-3	5-4	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Foshan Nanshi vs Dalian K'un City?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Dalian K'un City win (51%). Probabilities: Foshan Nanshi 24%, draw 25%, Dalian K'un City 51%.

How many goals are expected in Foshan Nanshi vs Dalian K'un City?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Foshan Nanshi 1.23 · Dalian K'un City 1.85), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Foshan Nanshi vs Dalian K'un City?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.