Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 04/09, 01:00

Prediction: Managua FC vs Diriangen

Team pages: Managua FC · Diriangen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

Managua FC1.5

Diriangen1.35

1X2

40% 27% 33%

Managua FC Draw Diriangen

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Managua FC 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWDLWWWWWW

Diriangen 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWDWDWDWWW

Head-to-head

Managua FC 2–3–1 Diriangen (6 last)

Managua FC4-1Diriangen
Diriangen1-1Managua FC
Diriangen1-0Managua FC
Managua FC0-0Diriangen
Diriangen1-1Managua FC
Managua FC2-0Diriangen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Managua FC 1630 · Diriangen 1540

	Managua FC	Draw	Diriangen
Our model	40%	27%	33%
Market	40%	27%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Managua FC (rating 1630 vs 1540).
H2H favours Managua FC: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Managua FC	Diriangen
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 0.5	2 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.3	1 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.7	2.1 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.1	5.9 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.30

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:04 +9’	2.25	3.30	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Managua FC 2–3–1 Diriangen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Managua FC	4-1 HT 2-1	Diriangen
22/02/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Diriangen	1-1 HT 0-1	Managua FC
21/12/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Diriangen	1-0 HT 1-0	Managua FC
14/12/25 Nicaragua Liga Primera Play-Offs	Managua FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Diriangen
23/11/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Diriangen	1-1 HT 0-0	Managua FC
15/09/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Managua FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Diriangen

Standings · Nicaragua Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Managua FC	6	6	0	0	20	3	18
2	Diriangen	6	4	2	0	11	4	14
3	UNAN Managua	7	4	2	1	8	5	14
4	Real Esteli	6	4	1	1	13	4	13
5	HYH Export Sebaco FC	6	3	1	2	7	12	10
6	San Marcos FC	7	2	2	3	6	9	8
7	CD Walter Ferretti	7	2	0	5	9	12	6
8	Matagalpa FC	7	2	0	5	3	13	6
9	Rancho Santana FC	7	1	0	6	5	12	3
10	Jalapa	7	1	0	6	2	10	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Managua FC	Diriangen
UNAN Managua	2-0 W	1-1 D
HYH Export Sebaco FC	6-1 W	5-0 W
San Marcos FC	4-1 W	1-1 D
Jalapa	3-0 W	2-0 W
Rancho Santana FC	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 0 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Managua FC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Managua FC

WWDLWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	2-0	10	4	W
23/08	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	5-0	6-1	1	4	W
10/08	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	3-0	9	3	W
01/08	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	4-1	6	4	W
26/07	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	3-0	7	8	W
19/07	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	2-1	6	7	W
21/12	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-1	4	12	L
23/11	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
06/11	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	3-0	4	4	W
02/11	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	3-0	4	2	W

Diriangen

WWDWDWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	2-0	4	5	W
23/08	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
09/08	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	2-1	6	6	W
01/08	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-1	3	12	D
24/07	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	3-1	3	4	W
18/07	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-1	2	7	D
21/12	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	5	12	W
23/11	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
07/11	Real Madriz FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
03/11	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	5-0	6	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Managua FC vs Diriangen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Managua FC win (40%). Probabilities: Managua FC 40%, draw 27%, Diriangen 33%.

How many goals are expected in Managua FC vs Diriangen?

The model expects 2.86 goals (Managua FC 1.5 · Diriangen 1.35), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Managua FC vs Diriangen?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.