Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 02/09, 23:00

Prediction: HYH Export Sebaco FC vs CD Walter Ferretti

Team pages: HYH Export Sebaco FC · CD Walter Ferretti

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

HYH Export Sebaco FC1.62

CD Walter Ferretti1.44

1X2

41% 26% 33%

HYH Export Sebaco FC Draw CD Walter Ferretti

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

HYH Export Sebaco FC 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWWDWWLL

CD Walter Ferretti 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWDLLWLWLL

Head-to-head

HYH Export Sebaco FC 4–2 CD Walter Ferretti (6 last)

CD Walter Ferretti3-1HYH Export Sebaco FC
HYH Export Sebaco FC1-0CD Walter Ferretti
HYH Export Sebaco FC2-1CD Walter Ferretti
CD Walter Ferretti4-2HYH Export Sebaco FC
CD Walter Ferretti2-3HYH Export Sebaco FC
HYH Export Sebaco FC1-0CD Walter Ferretti

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HYH Export Sebaco FC 1524 · CD Walter Ferretti 1448

	HYH Export Sebaco FC	Draw	CD Walter Ferretti
Our model	41%	26%	33%
Market	41%	26%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HYH Export Sebaco FC (rating 1524 vs 1448).
H2H favours HYH Export Sebaco FC: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HYH Export Sebaco FC	CD Walter Ferretti
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.1	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.1	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 1.9	2.8 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.3	4 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.40

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.23
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.75 → 2.75	Pinn 2.98 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:07 +5’	2.20	3.40	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:28 +1’	2.23	3.11	2.98

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HYH Export Sebaco FC 4–0–2 CD Walter Ferretti

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/03/26 Nicaragua Clausura	CD Walter Ferretti	3-1 HT 1-1	HYH Export Sebaco FC
31/01/26 Nicaragua Clausura	HYH Export Sebaco FC	1-0 HT 0-0	CD Walter Ferretti
05/10/25 Nicaragua Apertura	HYH Export Sebaco FC	2-1 HT 0-0	CD Walter Ferretti
27/07/25 Nicaragua Apertura	CD Walter Ferretti	4-2 HT 0-0	HYH Export Sebaco FC
05/05/25 Nicaragua Play-Offs	CD Walter Ferretti	2-3 HT 1-2	HYH Export Sebaco FC
02/03/25 Nicaragua Clausura	HYH Export Sebaco FC	1-0 HT 1-0	CD Walter Ferretti

Standings · Nicaragua Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Managua FC	6	6	0	0	20	3	18
2	Diriangen	6	4	2	0	11	4	14
3	UNAN Managua	7	4	2	1	8	5	14
4	Real Esteli	6	4	1	1	13	4	13
5	HYH Export Sebaco FC	6	3	1	2	7	12	10
6	San Marcos FC	7	2	2	3	6	9	8
7	CD Walter Ferretti	7	2	0	5	9	12	6
8	Matagalpa FC	7	2	0	5	3	13	6
9	Rancho Santana FC	7	1	0	6	5	12	3
10	Jalapa	7	1	0	6	2	10	3

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HYH Export Sebaco FC	CD Walter Ferretti
Real Esteli	0-5 L	1-4 L
Jalapa	1-0 W	0-1 L
Rancho Santana FC	1-0 W	3-1 W
San Marcos FC	1-1 D	0-1 L
Matagalpa FC	3-0 W	4-1 W
UNAN Managua	3-1 W	0-1 L
Diriangen	0-5 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 5 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HYH Export Sebaco FC

WLLWWDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-5	3	5	L
23/08	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-5	1-6	2	4	L
09/08	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	4	11	W
02/08	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
25/07	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	1-1	1	6	D
19/07	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	3-0	3	2	W
23/11	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
07/11	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-3	0	8	L
03/11	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-5	0	1	L
25/10	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	2-0	–	–	W

CD Walter Ferretti

LWDLLWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	8	4	L
24/08	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	4	8	L
16/08	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	3-1	10	5	W
08/08	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	1-4	5	3	L
03/08	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	4-1	7	3	W
24/07	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	1-3	5	4	L
19/07	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
28/11	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
16/11	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	3-1	3	3	W
06/11	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	1-2	10	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HYH Export Sebaco FC vs CD Walter Ferretti?

According to our model, the most likely result is a HYH Export Sebaco FC win (41%). Probabilities: HYH Export Sebaco FC 41%, draw 26%, CD Walter Ferretti 33%.

How many goals are expected in HYH Export Sebaco FC vs CD Walter Ferretti?

The model expects 3.06 goals (HYH Export Sebaco FC 1.62 · CD Walter Ferretti 1.44), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in HYH Export Sebaco FC vs CD Walter Ferretti?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.