Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 03/09, 00:00

Prediction: Jalapa vs Rancho Santana FC

Team pages: Jalapa · Rancho Santana FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

Jalapa1.64

Rancho Santana FC1

1X2

52% 26% 23%

Jalapa Draw Rancho Santana FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Jalapa 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLLLLL

Rancho Santana FC 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WLWLLLLLLW

Head-to-head

Jalapa 4–2 Rancho Santana FC (6 last)

Rancho Santana FC3-4Jalapa
Jalapa2-0Rancho Santana FC
Jalapa4-0Rancho Santana FC
Rancho Santana FC2-1Jalapa
Jalapa2-0Rancho Santana FC
Rancho Santana FC4-0Jalapa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Jalapa 1451 · Rancho Santana FC 1414

	Jalapa	Draw	Rancho Santana FC
Our model	51%	27%	22%
Market	52%	25%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Jalapa: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Jalapa	Rancho Santana FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.4	0.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.1	3.7 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.5	4.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.60

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:04 +8’	1.73	3.60	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Jalapa 4–0–2 Rancho Santana FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
20/04/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Rancho Santana FC	3-4 HT 2-0	Jalapa
18/02/26 Nicaragua Clausura	Jalapa	2-0 HT 1-0	Rancho Santana FC
06/11/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Jalapa	4-0 HT 2-0	Rancho Santana FC
01/09/25 Nicaragua Apertura	Rancho Santana FC	2-1 HT 1-1	Jalapa
09/03/25 Nicaragua Clausura	Jalapa	2-0 HT 1-0	Rancho Santana FC
22/01/25 Nicaragua Clausura	Rancho Santana FC	4-0 HT 3-0	Jalapa

Standings · Nicaragua Apertura

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Managua FC	6	6	0	0	20	3	18
2	Diriangen	6	4	2	0	11	4	14
3	UNAN Managua	7	4	2	1	8	5	14
4	Real Esteli	6	4	1	1	13	4	13
5	HYH Export Sebaco FC	6	3	1	2	7	12	10
6	San Marcos FC	7	2	2	3	6	9	8
7	CD Walter Ferretti	7	2	0	5	9	12	6
8	Matagalpa FC	7	2	0	5	3	13	6
9	Rancho Santana FC	7	1	0	6	5	12	3
10	Jalapa	7	1	0	6	2	10	3

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Jalapa	Rancho Santana FC
Diriangen	0-2 L	1-2 L
Matagalpa FC	0-1 L	1-0 W
UNAN Managua	1-2 L	0-2 L
HYH Export Sebaco FC	0-1 L	0-1 L
Managua FC	0-3 L	1-2 L
CD Walter Ferretti	1-0 W	1-3 L
Real Madriz FC	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 5 L	2 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Rancho Santana FC (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Jalapa

WWLWLLLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-2	8	5	L
23/08	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
17/08	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-2	9	2	L
09/08	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	5	11	L
31/07	Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	0-1	0	5	L
26/07	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-3	6	8	L
19/07	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
16/11	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	1-3	6	3	L
06/11	Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	4-0	4	3	W
01/11	Real Madriz FC Nicaragua Apertura	2-0	2-1	5	4	W

Rancho Santana FC

WLWLLLLLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
24/08	San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	1-2	14	5	L
16/08	CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	1-3	9	5	L
09/08	Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	1-2	5	6	L
02/08	HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
28/07	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-1	0-2	8	5	L
19/07	Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-1	1-2	2	7	L
17/11	Real Madriz FC Nicaragua Apertura	1-0	1-0	1	1	W
06/11	Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura	0-2	0-4	2	3	L
02/11	UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura	0-0	2-1	6	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jalapa vs Rancho Santana FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Jalapa win (52%). Probabilities: Jalapa 52%, draw 26%, Rancho Santana FC 23%.

How many goals are expected in Jalapa vs Rancho Santana FC?

The model expects 2.64 goals (Jalapa 1.64 · Rancho Santana FC 1), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Jalapa vs Rancho Santana FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.