Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 08/09, 18:45
Prediction: NEC vs Excelsior
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.64Total
NEC2.51
Excelsior1.13
1X2
NEC
Draw
Excelsior
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
2-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
NEC
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Excelsior
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
NEC
4–1–1
Excelsior
(6 last)
- Excelsior0-2NEC
- NEC5-0Excelsior
- Excelsior0-3NEC
- NEC3-4Excelsior
- Excelsior0-3NEC
- NEC1-1Excelsior
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · NEC 1503 · Excelsior 1575
| NEC | Draw | Excelsior | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 19% | 15% |
| Market | 66% | 20% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.64 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Excelsior (rating 1503 vs 1575).
- H2H favours NEC: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| NEC | Excelsior | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.2 | 2.2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.9 | 1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/10/50% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 7.4 | 1.9 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0 | 1.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · NEC 4–1–1 Excelsior
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Netherlands Eredivisie | Excelsior | 0-2 HT 0-1 | NEC |
| 09/08/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | NEC | 5-0 HT 1-0 | Excelsior |
| 06/05/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | Excelsior | 0-3 HT 0-0 | NEC |
| 13/08/23 Netherlands Eredivisie | NEC | 3-4 HT 2-1 | Excelsior |
| 19/02/23 Netherlands Eredivisie | Excelsior | 0-3 HT 0-1 | NEC |
| 08/10/22 Netherlands Eredivisie | NEC | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Excelsior |
Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 12 |
| 2 | PSV | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 5 | 10 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 8 |
| 4 | Ajax | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Go Ahead Eagles | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 7 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 7 |
| 7 | NEC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 6 |
| 8 | Excelsior | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | FC Twente | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 6 |
| 10 | FC Groningen | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 6 |
| 11 | Heerenveen | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 4 |
| 13 | Telstar | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 3 |
| 15 | Willem II | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
| 16 | ADO Den Haag | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 1 |
| 17 | FC Utrecht | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 1 |
| 18 | Cambuur Leeuwarden | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | NEC | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle | 3-1 W | 2-2 D |
| FC Groningen | 1-2 L | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
NEC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 15/08 | Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 08/08 | Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-2 | 1-2 | 13 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 2-1 | 13 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 12/04 | Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 04/04 | Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 22/03 | Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | D |
Excelsior
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 15/08 | PSV Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 07/08 | Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie |
3-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 17/05 | Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | FC Volendam Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 02/05 | FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 26/04 | FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 12/04 | PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 04/04 | NEC Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 20/03 | Heracles Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in NEC vs Excelsior?
According to our model, the most likely result is a NEC win (66%). Probabilities: NEC 66%, draw 19%, Excelsior 14%.
How many goals are expected in NEC vs Excelsior?
The model expects 3.64 goals (NEC 2.51 · Excelsior 1.13), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in NEC vs Excelsior?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.