Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 13/09, 16:45

Prediction: PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord

Team pages: PEC Zwolle · Feyenoord

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.93Total

PEC Zwolle1.27

Feyenoord2.66

1X2

15% 18% 66%

PEC Zwolle Draw Feyenoord

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

PEC Zwolle 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLWLLLLWLD

Feyenoord 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

DWWDWWDWDW

Head-to-head

PEC Zwolle 0–6 Feyenoord (6 last)

PEC Zwolle0-2Feyenoord
Feyenoord6-1PEC Zwolle
Feyenoord4-0PEC Zwolle
PEC Zwolle1-5Feyenoord
Feyenoord5-0PEC Zwolle
PEC Zwolle0-2Feyenoord

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · PEC Zwolle 1430 · Feyenoord 1634

	PEC Zwolle	Draw	Feyenoord
Our model	16%	18%	66%
Market	15%	19%	66%

Estimated total (ours) 3.93 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Feyenoord (rating 1430 vs 1634).
H2H favours Feyenoord: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	PEC Zwolle	Feyenoord
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.3	2.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	1 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.7	3.5 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0.2	2.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

16.00

X5.00

21.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)2.00

2 (-1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.00 → 6.00	Pinn 6.20 ★
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	1.40 → 1.40	Pinn 1.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:29 +1’	6.00	5.00	1.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:46 +464’	6.20	4.90	1.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · PEC Zwolle 0–0–6 Feyenoord

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	PEC Zwolle	0-2 HT 0-0	Feyenoord
06/12/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Feyenoord	6-1 HT 4-0	PEC Zwolle
25/04/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Feyenoord	4-0 HT 3-0	PEC Zwolle
18/08/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	PEC Zwolle	1-5 HT 0-1	Feyenoord
05/05/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	Feyenoord	5-0 HT 2-0	PEC Zwolle
08/10/23 Netherlands Eredivisie	PEC Zwolle	0-2 HT 0-1	Feyenoord

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AZ	5	5	0	0	16	5	15
2	PSV	5	4	1	0	18	6	13
3	Feyenoord	5	3	2	0	13	7	11
4	Fortuna Sittard	5	3	1	1	11	9	10
5	Excelsior	4	3	0	1	10	3	9
6	Ajax	4	2	1	1	9	5	7
6	FC Twente	4	2	1	1	9	5	7
8	Go Ahead Eagles	4	2	1	1	11	9	7
9	FC Groningen	5	2	1	2	11	12	7
10	NEC	4	2	0	2	9	7	6
11	Sparta Rotterdam	5	1	2	2	9	9	5
12	Heerenveen	5	1	2	2	7	9	5
13	Telstar	4	1	1	2	5	10	4
14	PEC Zwolle	5	1	1	3	6	10	4
15	FC Utrecht	4	0	1	3	6	15	1
16	Willem II	4	0	1	3	4	13	1
17	ADO Den Haag	5	0	1	4	6	14	1
18	Cambuur Leeuwarden	5	0	1	4	6	18	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	PEC Zwolle	Feyenoord
Sparta Rotterdam	2-2 D	1-0 W
NEC	1-3 L	3-1 W
Fortuna Sittard	2-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Feyenoord (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

PEC Zwolle

DLWLLLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	4	2	D
29/08	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	1-3	6	4	L
22/08	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
16/08	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	1-3	3	0	L
09/08	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
17/05	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-2	2	0	L
10/05	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	2-3	5	1	L
03/05	Heracles Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
23/04	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-6	4	2	L
12/04	Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	5	1	D

Feyenoord

DWWDWWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	3-1	1	3	W
30/08	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	2-2	11	3	D
23/08	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie	4-0	5-2	3	1	W
16/08	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	2-2	6	0	D
09/08	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	1-0	10	4	W
17/05	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-0	12	0	W
10/05	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-1	7	1	D
03/05	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-1	8	6	W
25/04	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	3-1	3	2	W
12/04	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	1-1	1	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Feyenoord win (66%). Probabilities: PEC Zwolle 15%, draw 18%, Feyenoord 66%.

How many goals are expected in PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord?

The model expects 3.93 goals (PEC Zwolle 1.27 · Feyenoord 2.66), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.