Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 12/09, 20:00

Prediction: Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax

Team pages: Fortuna Sittard · Ajax

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.58Total

Fortuna Sittard1.2

Ajax2.38

1X2

17% 20% 63%

Fortuna Sittard Draw Ajax

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Fortuna Sittard 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWLDWLWW

Ajax 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDLDWDWDWL

Head-to-head

Fortuna Sittard 0–2–4 Ajax (6 last)

Ajax4-1Fortuna Sittard
Fortuna Sittard1-3Ajax
Fortuna Sittard0-2Ajax
Ajax5-0Fortuna Sittard
Ajax2-2Fortuna Sittard
Fortuna Sittard0-0Ajax

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fortuna Sittard 1498 · Ajax 1626

	Fortuna Sittard	Draw	Ajax
Our model	17%	20%	63%
Market	17%	21%	63%

Estimated total (ours) 3.58 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ajax (rating 1498 vs 1626).
H2H favours Ajax: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fortuna Sittard	Ajax
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.8	1.6 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 2.6	2.2 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.3	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.50

X4.50

21.48

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.80

2 (-1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.50▲	Pinn 6.61 ★
X	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 5.32
2	1.53 → 1.48▼	Bet365 1.48

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8% Pinnacle margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:55 +15’	5.00	4.50	1.53
19:26 +1’	5.50▲	4.50	1.48▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:15 +72’	6.83	5.40	1.38
20:46 +27’	6.61▼	5.32▼	1.39▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Fortuna Sittard 0–2–4 Ajax

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	Ajax	4-1 HT 3-1	Fortuna Sittard
06/12/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Fortuna Sittard	1-3 HT 1-1	Ajax
09/02/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Fortuna Sittard	0-2 HT 0-0	Ajax
18/09/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	Ajax	5-0 HT 2-0	Fortuna Sittard
10/03/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	Ajax	2-2 HT 1-0	Fortuna Sittard
03/09/23 Netherlands Eredivisie	Fortuna Sittard	0-0 HT 0-0	Ajax

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AZ	5	5	0	0	16	5	15
2	PSV	5	4	1	0	18	6	13
3	Feyenoord	5	3	2	0	13	7	11
4	Fortuna Sittard	5	3	1	1	11	9	10
5	Excelsior	4	3	0	1	10	3	9
6	Ajax	4	2	1	1	9	5	7
6	FC Twente	4	2	1	1	9	5	7
8	Go Ahead Eagles	4	2	1	1	11	9	7
9	FC Groningen	5	2	1	2	11	12	7
10	NEC	4	2	0	2	9	7	6
11	Sparta Rotterdam	5	1	2	2	9	9	5
12	Heerenveen	5	1	2	2	7	9	5
13	Telstar	4	1	1	2	5	10	4
14	PEC Zwolle	5	1	1	3	6	10	4
15	FC Utrecht	4	0	1	3	6	15	1
16	Willem II	4	0	1	3	4	13	1
17	ADO Den Haag	5	0	1	4	6	14	1
18	Cambuur Leeuwarden	5	0	1	4	6	18	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fortuna Sittard	Ajax
FC Groningen	3-2 W	2-0 W
PSV	2-2 D	1-3 L
FC Utrecht	0-2 L	0-0 D
PEC Zwolle	3-2 W	2-0 W
Heerenveen	1-2 L	2-2 D
NAC	1-1 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Ajax (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fortuna Sittard

DLLWLDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	3-2	0	4	W
28/08	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	3-2	2	7	W
22/08	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-2	1	2	L
15/08	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	3-1	6	2	W
08/08	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-2	0	2	D
17/05	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
10/05	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	3-2	6	1	W
03/05	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	1-2	1	6	L
25/04	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	1-2	0	4	L
12/04	NAC Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	1-1	5	3	D

Ajax

WDLDWDWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	1-3	1	6	L
30/08	Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	4-0	4	0	W
16/08	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	2-2	7	4	D
09/08	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-0	10	5	W
24/05	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
21/05	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
17/05	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
10/05	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
02/05	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
25/04	NAC Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	2-0	2	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ajax win (63%). Probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 17%, draw 20%, Ajax 63%.

How many goals are expected in Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax?

The model expects 3.58 goals (Fortuna Sittard 1.2 · Ajax 2.38), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.