Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 12/09, 18:45

Prediction: Go Ahead Eagles vs FC Groningen

Team pages: Go Ahead Eagles · FC Groningen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

Go Ahead Eagles1.68

FC Groningen1.54

1X2

41% 25% 35%

Go Ahead Eagles Draw FC Groningen

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Go Ahead Eagles 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDDDLLWDWL

FC Groningen 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWLWWLLD

Head-to-head

Go Ahead Eagles 2–3–1 FC Groningen (6 last)

FC Groningen0-0Go Ahead Eagles
Go Ahead Eagles1-1FC Groningen
Go Ahead Eagles2-1FC Groningen
FC Groningen0-1Go Ahead Eagles
Go Ahead Eagles1-1FC Groningen
FC Groningen1-0Go Ahead Eagles

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Go Ahead Eagles 1530 · FC Groningen 1480

	Go Ahead Eagles	Draw	FC Groningen
Our model	40%	25%	34%
Market	41%	24%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Go Ahead Eagles (rating 1530 vs 1480).
H2H favours Go Ahead Eagles: 2-3-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Go Ahead Eagles	FC Groningen
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.7	1.8 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	1.1 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.6	1.9 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.8 / 0.1	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.80

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.9%

Time*	1	X	2
01:03 +6’	2.25	3.80	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Go Ahead Eagles 2–3–1 FC Groningen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Groningen	0-0 HT 0-0	Go Ahead Eagles
21/12/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Go Ahead Eagles	1-1 HT 1-0	FC Groningen
18/01/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Go Ahead Eagles	2-1 HT 1-1	FC Groningen
29/09/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Groningen	0-1 HT 0-0	Go Ahead Eagles
07/05/23 Netherlands Eredivisie	Go Ahead Eagles	1-1 HT 1-1	FC Groningen
21/08/22 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Groningen	1-0 HT 1-0	Go Ahead Eagles

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AZ	5	5	0	0	16	5	15
2	PSV	5	4	1	0	18	6	13
3	Feyenoord	5	3	2	0	13	7	11
4	Fortuna Sittard	5	3	1	1	11	9	10
5	Excelsior	4	3	0	1	10	3	9
6	Ajax	4	2	1	1	9	5	7
6	FC Twente	4	2	1	1	9	5	7
8	Go Ahead Eagles	4	2	1	1	11	9	7
9	FC Groningen	5	2	1	2	11	12	7
10	NEC	4	2	0	2	9	7	6
11	Sparta Rotterdam	5	1	2	2	9	9	5
12	Heerenveen	5	1	2	2	7	9	5
13	Telstar	4	1	1	2	5	10	4
14	PEC Zwolle	5	1	1	3	6	10	4
15	FC Utrecht	4	0	1	3	6	15	1
16	Willem II	4	0	1	3	4	13	1
17	ADO Den Haag	5	0	1	4	6	14	1
18	Cambuur Leeuwarden	5	0	1	4	6	18	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Go Ahead Eagles	FC Groningen
ADO Den Haag	3-1 W	4-1 W
Feyenoord	2-2 D	1-3 L
NEC	1-2 L	2-1 W
PSV	1-4 L	1-5 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Go Ahead Eagles

WDDDLLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	2-5	4	0	L
23/08	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	3-1	5	3	W
16/08	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	2-2	6	0	D
08/08	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	4-1	6	3	W
17/05	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	1-2	4	3	L
10/05	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	1-4	8	0	L
03/05	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	2-2	8	6	D
23/04	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
11/04	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-0	5	0	D
05/04	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	3-0	5-0	5	1	W

FC Groningen

LLWWLWWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	2-2	2-2	8	2	D
28/08	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	2-3	7	7	L
23/08	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-3	1-5	4	2	L
16/08	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie	3-0	4-1	2	1	W
09/08	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
21/05	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-2	0	5	L
17/05	Heracles Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-1	5	2	W
10/05	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
02/05	Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-3	5	0	L
25/04	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	1-3	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Go Ahead Eagles vs FC Groningen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Go Ahead Eagles win (41%). Probabilities: Go Ahead Eagles 41%, draw 25%, FC Groningen 35%.

How many goals are expected in Go Ahead Eagles vs FC Groningen?

The model expects 3.22 goals (Go Ahead Eagles 1.68 · FC Groningen 1.54), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Go Ahead Eagles vs FC Groningen?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.