Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 13/09, 20:00
Prediction: PSV vs Sparta Rotterdam
Team pages: PSV · Sparta Rotterdam
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.27Total
PSV3.13
Sparta Rotterdam1.13
1X2
PSV
Draw
Sparta Rotterdam
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
3-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
PSV
8-2-0 (W-D-L)
Sparta Rotterdam
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
PSV
6–0
Sparta Rotterdam
(6 last)
- Sparta Rotterdam0-2PSV
- PSV6-1Sparta Rotterdam
- Sparta Rotterdam1-3PSV
- PSV2-1Sparta Rotterdam
- PSV4-2Sparta Rotterdam
- Sparta Rotterdam0-4PSV
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · PSV 1598 · Sparta Rotterdam 1441
| PSV | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | 14% | 10% |
| Market | 80% | 13% | 7% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.27 goals · Bet365 line 4.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours PSV (rating 1598 vs 1441).
- H2H favours PSV: 6-0-0.
- High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| PSV | Sparta Rotterdam | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.7 / 1.1 | 1.4 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.5 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 80/10/10% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6.7 | 2.8 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0 | 3.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · PSV 6–0–0 Sparta Rotterdam
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Netherlands Eredivisie | Sparta Rotterdam | 0-2 HT 0-1 | PSV |
| 09/08/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | PSV | 6-1 HT 3-0 | Sparta Rotterdam |
| 18/05/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | Sparta Rotterdam | 1-3 HT 0-1 | PSV |
| 05/10/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | PSV | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Sparta Rotterdam |
| 05/05/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | PSV | 4-2 HT 2-2 | Sparta Rotterdam |
| 08/10/23 Netherlands Eredivisie | Sparta Rotterdam | 0-4 HT 0-0 | PSV |
Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | PSV | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | FC Twente | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Feyenoord | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Excelsior | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 10 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 13 | 9 |
| 8 | FC Groningen | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 13 | 8 |
| 9 | Ajax | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 7 |
| 10 | NEC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 7 |
| 11 | Sparta Rotterdam | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 |
| 12 | Heerenveen | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 |
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 4 |
| 14 | Telstar | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 4 |
| 15 | FC Utrecht | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 2 |
| 16 | Willem II | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 2 |
| 17 | Cambuur Leeuwarden | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 1 |
| 18 | ADO Den Haag | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 1 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | PSV | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht | 6-1 W | 3-3 D |
| Excelsior | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| FC Twente | 5-1 W | 0-4 L |
| Go Ahead Eagles | 4-1 W | 2-2 D |
| PEC Zwolle | 6-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 0 L | 0 W 3 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: PSV (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
PSV
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 30/08 | FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 6-1 | 13 | 6 | W |
| 23/08 | FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie |
3-1 | 5-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 15/08 | Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 08/08 | Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 17/05 | FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 5-1 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 23/04 | PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 6-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 11/04 | Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
Sparta Rotterdam
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 2-2 | 15 | 2 | D |
| 29/08 | Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 14/08 | Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 09/08 | Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 22/04 | Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 11/04 | PSV Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in PSV vs Sparta Rotterdam?
According to our model, the most likely result is a PSV win (78%). Probabilities: PSV 78%, draw 13%, Sparta Rotterdam 8%.
How many goals are expected in PSV vs Sparta Rotterdam?
The model expects 4.27 goals (PSV 3.13 · Sparta Rotterdam 1.13), with a 52% chance of under 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in PSV vs Sparta Rotterdam?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.