Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 13/09, 12:15

Prediction: Excelsior vs FC Utrecht

Team pages: Excelsior · FC Utrecht

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.42Total

Excelsior1.71

FC Utrecht1.71

1X2

37% 25% 37%

Excelsior Draw FC Utrecht

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Excelsior 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWDWWLWW

FC Utrecht 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWWDLLDL

Head-to-head

Excelsior 1–2–3 FC Utrecht (6 last)

Excelsior5-0FC Utrecht
FC Utrecht4-1Excelsior
Excelsior1-1FC Utrecht
FC Utrecht2-2Excelsior
FC Utrecht1-0Excelsior
Excelsior0-1FC Utrecht

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Excelsior 1590 · FC Utrecht 1462

	Excelsior	Draw	FC Utrecht
Our model	38%	24%	38%
Market	37%	26%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Excelsior (rating 1590 vs 1462).
H2H favours FC Utrecht: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Excelsior	FC Utrecht
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.2	1.5 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.3	2.5 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.8 / 0.1	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.60

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:22 +4’	2.50	3.60	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Excelsior 1–2–3 FC Utrecht

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	Excelsior	5-0 HT 2-0	FC Utrecht
24/08/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Utrecht	4-1 HT 2-0	Excelsior
27/01/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	Excelsior	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Utrecht
12/11/23 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Utrecht	2-2 HT 0-0	Excelsior
25/01/23 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Utrecht	1-0 HT 1-0	Excelsior
02/10/22 Netherlands Eredivisie	Excelsior	0-1 HT 0-1	FC Utrecht

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AZ	5	5	0	0	16	5	15
2	PSV	5	4	1	0	18	6	13
3	Feyenoord	5	3	2	0	13	7	11
4	Fortuna Sittard	5	3	1	1	11	9	10
5	Excelsior	4	3	0	1	10	3	9
6	Ajax	4	2	1	1	9	5	7
6	FC Twente	4	2	1	1	9	5	7
8	Go Ahead Eagles	4	2	1	1	11	9	7
9	FC Groningen	5	2	1	2	11	12	7
10	NEC	4	2	0	2	9	7	6
11	Sparta Rotterdam	5	1	2	2	9	9	5
12	Heerenveen	5	1	2	2	7	9	5
13	Telstar	4	1	1	2	5	10	4
14	PEC Zwolle	5	1	1	3	6	10	4
15	FC Utrecht	4	0	1	3	6	15	1
16	Willem II	4	0	1	3	4	13	1
17	ADO Den Haag	5	0	1	4	6	14	1
18	Cambuur Leeuwarden	5	0	1	4	6	18	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Excelsior	FC Utrecht
Sparta Rotterdam	2-1 W	3-3 D
PSV	1-2 L	1-6 L
FC Groningen	3-2 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Excelsior (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Excelsior

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	3-0	6	3	W
29/08	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
15/08	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-2	1	1	L
07/08	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie	3-0	4-0	8	0	W
17/05	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	3-2	2	4	W
10/05	FC Volendam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
02/05	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	3-2	8	0	W
26/04	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	5-0	3	3	W
12/04	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	2	1	D
04/04	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-2	2	0	L

FC Utrecht

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	1-6	0	6	L
22/08	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	3-3	7	0	D
15/08	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-4	3	6	L
09/08	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-2	1	2	L
24/05	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
21/05	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	3-2	9	1	W
17/05	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
10/05	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-1	7	4	W
02/05	NAC Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
26/04	Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	0-5	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Excelsior vs FC Utrecht?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Excelsior win (37%). Probabilities: Excelsior 37%, draw 25%, FC Utrecht 37%.

How many goals are expected in Excelsior vs FC Utrecht?

The model expects 3.42 goals (Excelsior 1.71 · FC Utrecht 1.71), with a 56% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Excelsior vs FC Utrecht?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.