Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 31/08, 01:30
Prediction: Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes Merida
Team pages: Deportivo La Guaira · Estudiantes Merida
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.43Total
Deportivo La Guaira1.73
Estudiantes Merida0.7
1X2
Deportivo La Guaira
Draw
Estudiantes Merida
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Deportivo La Guaira
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Estudiantes Merida
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Deportivo La Guaira
5–1–0
Estudiantes Merida
(6 last)
- Estudiantes Merida0-1Deportivo La Guaira
- Estudiantes Merida1-2Deportivo La Guaira
- Deportivo La Guaira2-1Estudiantes Merida
- Deportivo La Guaira3-1Estudiantes Merida
- Estudiantes Merida0-1Deportivo La Guaira
- Deportivo La Guaira1-1Estudiantes Merida
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Deportivo La Guaira 1540 · Estudiantes Merida 1471
| Deportivo La Guaira | Draw | Estudiantes Merida | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 25% | 14% |
| Market | 62% | 24% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo La Guaira (rating 1540 vs 1471).
- H2H favours Deportivo La Guaira: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 11.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Deportivo La Guaira | Estudiantes Merida | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1 | 0.5 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.5 | 0.1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.3 | 2.3 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.1 / 0.5 | 5.6 / 1.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo La Guaira 5–1–0 Estudiantes Merida
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/03/26 Venezuela Primera Division | Estudiantes Merida | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Deportivo La Guaira |
| 25/08/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Estudiantes Merida | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Deportivo La Guaira |
| 17/03/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Deportivo La Guaira | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Estudiantes Merida |
| 13/11/24 Venezuela Primera Division | Deportivo La Guaira | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Estudiantes Merida |
| 31/10/24 Venezuela Primera Division | Estudiantes Merida | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Deportivo La Guaira |
| 28/09/24 Venezuela Primera Division | Deportivo La Guaira | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Estudiantes Merida |
Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo La Guaira | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 12 |
| 2 | Deportivo Tachira | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | Metropolitanos FC | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Academia Puerto Cabello | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Portuguesa | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | Estudiantes Merida | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 8 |
| 7 | Carabobo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | Zamora | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 6 |
| 9 | Caracas | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 |
| 10 | Monagas | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| 11 | Trujillanos | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| 12 | Academia Anzoategui FC | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 4 |
| 13 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 3 |
| 14 | UCV | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Deportivo La Guaira | Estudiantes Merida |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Rayo Zuliano | 4-1 W | 0-3 L |
| Zamora | 6-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Caracas | 2-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Metropolitanos FC | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Academia Puerto Cabello | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Deportivo La Guaira (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Deportivo La Guaira
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 4-1 | 0 | 12 | W |
| 17/08 | Zamora Venezuela Primera Division |
4-0 | 6-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 11/08 | Caracas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 06/08 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | Monagas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 24/05 | Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 9 | W |
| 16/05 | UCV Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 10 | D |
| 13/05 | UCV Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 6 | D |
Estudiantes Merida
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 15/08 | Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 10/08 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 06/08 | Zamora Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 04/08 | Caracas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 31/05 | Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 24/05 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 9 | L |
| 17/05 | Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 14/05 | Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes Merida?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo La Guaira win (62%). Probabilities: Deportivo La Guaira 62%, draw 24%, Estudiantes Merida 14%.
How many goals are expected in Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes Merida?
The model expects 2.43 goals (Deportivo La Guaira 1.73 · Estudiantes Merida 0.7), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes Merida?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.