Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 06/09, 23:00
Prediction: Trujillanos vs Caracas
Team pages: Trujillanos · Caracas
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.47Total
Trujillanos1.18
Caracas1.29
1X2
Trujillanos
Draw
Caracas
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Trujillanos
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Caracas
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Trujillanos
0–3–3
Caracas
(6 last)
- Caracas4-2Trujillanos
- Trujillanos0-0Caracas
- Trujillanos0-0Caracas
- Caracas1-0Trujillanos
- Caracas2-0Trujillanos
- Trujillanos1-1Caracas
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Trujillanos 1442 · Caracas 1507
| Trujillanos | Draw | Caracas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 30% | 38% |
| Market | 33% | 30% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Caracas (rating 1442 vs 1507).
- H2H favours Caracas: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Trujillanos | Caracas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.7 | 1.1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5 | 2.1 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.3 | 5.1 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Trujillanos 0–3–3 Caracas
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/03/26 Venezuela Primera Division | Caracas | 4-2 HT 1-1 | Trujillanos |
| 23/02/20 Venezuela Primera Division | Trujillanos | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Caracas |
| 25/08/19 Venezuela Primera Division | Trujillanos | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Caracas |
| 02/03/19 Venezuela Primera Division | Caracas | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Trujillanos |
| 12/09/18 Venezuela Primera Division | Caracas | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Trujillanos |
| 28/01/18 Venezuela Primera Division | Trujillanos | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Caracas |
Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Tachira | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 8 | 16 |
| 2 | Metropolitanos FC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Academia Puerto Cabello | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Deportivo La Guaira | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 9 | 13 |
| 5 | Portuguesa | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 12 |
| 6 | Estudiantes Merida | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 12 |
| 7 | Carabobo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 8 |
| 8 | Monagas | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 7 |
| 9 | UCV | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 7 |
| 10 | Caracas | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 7 |
| 11 | Trujillanos | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 7 |
| 12 | Zamora | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 7 |
| 13 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 16 | 6 |
| 14 | Academia Anzoategui FC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 4 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Trujillanos | Caracas |
|---|---|---|
| Academia Anzoategui FC | 0-0 D | 1-3 L |
| Portuguesa | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Deportivo Tachira | 1-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Carabobo | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| UCV | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Deportivo La Guaira | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Academia Puerto Cabello | 1-3 L | 1-3 L |
| Estudiantes Merida | 0-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 6 L | 1 W 4 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Caracas (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Trujillanos
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-4 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 30/08 | Monagas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 21/08 | Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 7 | D |
| 16/08 | Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 09/08 | Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 04/08 | Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | UCV Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 25/04 | Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 22/04 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 12/04 | Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
Caracas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 30/08 | Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 22/08 | Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 15/08 | UCV Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 11/08 | Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 07/08 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 04/08 | Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 25/04 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 20/04 | Zamora Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 13/04 | Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Trujillanos vs Caracas?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Caracas win (38%). Probabilities: Trujillanos 33%, draw 30%, Caracas 38%.
How many goals are expected in Trujillanos vs Caracas?
The model expects 2.47 goals (Trujillanos 1.18 · Caracas 1.29), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Trujillanos vs Caracas?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.