Football · Hong Kong 1st Division · 20/09, 09:30
Prediction: Bright Cerulean FC vs Yuen Long
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.36Total
Bright Cerulean FC1.18
Yuen Long3.18
1X2
Bright Cerulean FC
Draw
Yuen Long
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-3 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Bright Cerulean FC
0-1-9 (W-D-L)
Yuen Long
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bright Cerulean FC
1–3–2
Yuen Long
(6 last)
- Yuen Long3-1Bright Cerulean FC
- Bright Cerulean FC0-1Yuen Long
- Yuen Long0-3Bright Cerulean FC
- Bright Cerulean FC0-0Yuen Long
- Yuen Long1-1Bright Cerulean FC
- Bright Cerulean FC1-1Yuen Long
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bright Cerulean FC 1375 · Yuen Long 1526
| Bright Cerulean FC | Draw | Yuen Long | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 10% | 14% | 76% |
| Market | 7% | 11% | 81% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.36 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yuen Long (rating 1375 vs 1526).
- H2H favours Yuen Long: 2-3-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bright Cerulean FC | Yuen Long | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 3.9 | 2.9 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1 | 0.9 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/50/50% | 56/11/33% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.4 / 1.8 | 3.1 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.8 / 0 | 2.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bright Cerulean FC 1–3–2 Yuen Long
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 Hong Kong 1st Division | Yuen Long | 3-1 | Bright Cerulean FC |
| 14/09/25 Hong Kong 1st Division | Bright Cerulean FC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Yuen Long |
| 23/03/25 Hong Kong 1st Division | Yuen Long | 0-3 HT 0-0 | Bright Cerulean FC |
| 15/09/24 Hong Kong 1st Division | Bright Cerulean FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Yuen Long |
| 18/02/24 Hong Kong 1st Division | Yuen Long | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Bright Cerulean FC |
| 15/10/23 Hong Kong 1st Division | Bright Cerulean FC | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Yuen Long |
Standings · Hong Kong 1st Division
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Central & Western | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Tung Sing | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | WSE | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Citizen AA | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Resources Capital FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Yuen Long | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Sky Leader FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 8 | Hoi King | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| 9 | Leaper FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 10 | Sham Shui Po | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 | South China AA | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 | Bright Cerulean FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 | Lucky Mile | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| 14 | Kui Tan SC | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Bright Cerulean FC | Yuen Long |
|---|---|---|
| Central & Western | 0-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Shatin | 1-5 L | 0-2 L |
| Lucky Mile | 1-1 D | 5-0 W |
| Sky Leader FC | 0-6 L | 1-5 L |
| WSE | 1-7 L | 3-8 L |
| Citizen AA | 0-3 L | 4-0 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 5 L | 2 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Yuen Long (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bright Cerulean FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 0-3 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 17/05 | Yuen Long Hong Kong 1st Division |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 10/05 | Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-2 | 1-6 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | Shatin Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-2 | 1-5 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 19/04 | Kwun Tong Hong Kong 1st Division |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 12/04 | South China AA Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 22/03 | Lucky Mile Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 15/03 | Sky Leader FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 0-6 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 08/03 | WSE Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-3 | 1-7 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 01/03 | Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
Yuen Long
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Kui Tan SC Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 6-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Bright Cerulean FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | Shatin Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | Sky Leader FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-2 | 1-5 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 19/04 | Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 12/04 | WSE Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-3 | 3-8 | 10 | 1 | L |
| 22/03 | Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division |
2-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 15/03 | Hoi King Hong Kong 1st Division |
2-1 | 4-3 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 08/03 | Lucky Mile Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-0 | 5-0 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 01/03 | Tung Sing Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bright Cerulean FC vs Yuen Long?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Yuen Long win (79%). Probabilities: Bright Cerulean FC 8%, draw 13%, Yuen Long 79%.
How many goals are expected in Bright Cerulean FC vs Yuen Long?
The model expects 4.36 goals (Bright Cerulean FC 1.18 · Yuen Long 3.18), with a 52% chance of over 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Bright Cerulean FC vs Yuen Long?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.