Football · Hong Kong 1st Division · 20/09, 09:30

Prediction: Citizen AA vs Lucky Mile

Team pages: Citizen AA · Lucky Mile

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.31Total

Citizen AA2.9

Lucky Mile1.41

1X2

67% 17% 16%

Citizen AA Draw Lucky Mile

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Citizen AA 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLLLWW

Lucky Mile 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

LLDDLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Citizen AA 2–0 Lucky Mile (2 last)

Lucky Mile1-3Citizen AA
Citizen AA3-1Lucky Mile

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Citizen AA 1487 · Lucky Mile 1404

	Citizen AA	Draw	Lucky Mile
Our model	67%	17%	16%
Market	67%	17%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 4.31 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Citizen AA (rating 1487 vs 1404).
H2H favours Citizen AA: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Citizen AA	Lucky Mile
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 3.1	1 / 4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.5	0.4 / 1.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	13/38/50%	11/22/67%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.8	1.2 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.25

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.82

2 (+1.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.82

Under 3.751.98

Diff.: 1.2 · xG: 4.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
01:05 +4’	1.33	5.25	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Citizen AA 2–0–0 Lucky Mile

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Hong Kong 1st Division	Lucky Mile	1-3 HT 1-1	Citizen AA
30/11/25 Hong Kong 1st Division	Citizen AA	3-1 HT 1-0	Lucky Mile

Standings · Hong Kong 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Central & Western	2	2	0	8	1	6
2	Tung Sing	2	2	0	4	1	6
2	WSE	2	2	0	4	1	6
4	Citizen AA	2	2	0	4	2	6
5	Resources Capital FC	1	1	0	5	1	3
6	Yuen Long	1	1	0	6	0	3
7	Sky Leader FC	2	1	1	2	3	3
8	Hoi King	2	1	1	2	5	3
9	Leaper FC	1	0	1	1	2	0
10	Sham Shui Po	2	0	2	1	3	0
10	South China AA	2	0	2	1	3	0
12	Bright Cerulean FC	1	0	1	0	3	0
13	Lucky Mile	2	0	2	2	7	0
14	Kui Tan SC	2	0	2	1	9	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Citizen AA	Lucky Mile
Sky Leader FC	3-4 L	1-2 L
WSE	3-6 L	0-9 L
Shatin	2-3 L	1-1 D
Central & Western	2-5 L	1-5 L
Yuen Long	0-4 L	0-5 L
Tung Sing	0-4 L	2-6 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 6 L	0 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Citizen AA (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Citizen AA

LLLLWLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Leaper FC Hong Kong 1st Division	1-1	2-1	2	8	W
06/09	South China AA Hong Kong 1st Division	2-1	2-1	4	6	W
17/05	Sky Leader FC Hong Kong 1st Division	–	3-4	–	–	L
10/05	WSE Hong Kong 1st Division	1-2	3-6	3	2	L
03/05	Shatin Hong Kong 1st Division	1-1	2-3	5	5	L
26/04	Lucky Mile Hong Kong 1st Division	1-1	3-1	10	6	W
19/04	South China AA Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	1-2	4	2	L
12/04	Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division	–	2-5	–	–	L
22/03	Yuen Long Hong Kong 1st Division	0-2	0-4	3	4	L
15/03	Tung Sing Hong Kong 1st Division	0-3	0-4	7	3	L

Lucky Mile

LLDDLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Sky Leader FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	1-2	4	2	L
06/09	Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division	0-3	1-5	3	3	L
17/05	Tung Sing Hong Kong 1st Division	2-3	2-6	2	3	L
10/05	Sky Leader FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-4	3-6	5	1	L
26/04	Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division	1-1	1-3	4	6	L
19/04	WSE Hong Kong 1st Division	0-4	0-9	1	1	L
12/04	Shatin Hong Kong 1st Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
22/03	Bright Cerulean FC Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
15/03	Sham Shui Po Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	0-2	1	3	L
08/03	Yuen Long Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	0-5	2	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Citizen AA vs Lucky Mile?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Citizen AA win (67%). Probabilities: Citizen AA 67%, draw 17%, Lucky Mile 16%.

How many goals are expected in Citizen AA vs Lucky Mile?

The model expects 4.31 goals (Citizen AA 2.9 · Lucky Mile 1.41), with a 55% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Citizen AA vs Lucky Mile?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.