Football · Hong Kong 1st Division · 27/09, 09:30

Prediction: Citizen AA vs Sham Shui Po

Team pages: Citizen AA · Sham Shui Po

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.73Total

Citizen AA1.82

Sham Shui Po1.9

1X2

37% 23% 40%

Citizen AA Draw Sham Shui Po

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Citizen AA 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLLWWW

Sham Shui Po 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWLDWDLLLW

Head-to-head

Citizen AA 2–4 Sham Shui Po (6 last)

Sham Shui Po3-1Citizen AA
Citizen AA2-3Sham Shui Po
Citizen AA4-1Sham Shui Po
Sham Shui Po2-3Citizen AA
Citizen AA1-4Sham Shui Po
Sham Shui Po4-2Citizen AA

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Citizen AA 1460 · Sham Shui Po 1526

	Citizen AA	Draw	Sham Shui Po
Our model	37%	23%	40%
Market	37%	24%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.73 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sham Shui Po (rating 1460 vs 1526).
H2H favours Sham Shui Po: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Citizen AA	Sham Shui Po
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 2.8	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.3	0.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	13/50/38%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.3	1.4 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.80

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
03:10 +4’	2.45	3.80	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Citizen AA 2–0–4 Sham Shui Po

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 Hong Kong 1st Division	Sham Shui Po	3-1 HT 1-0	Citizen AA
12/10/25 Hong Kong 1st Division	Citizen AA	2-3 HT 1-0	Sham Shui Po
12/01/25 Hong Kong 1st Division	Citizen AA	4-1 HT 0-0	Sham Shui Po
22/12/24 Hong Kong 1st Division	Sham Shui Po	2-3 HT 1-0	Citizen AA
07/11/21 Hong Kong 1st Division	Citizen AA	1-4 HT 1-4	Sham Shui Po
20/06/21 Hong Kong 1st Division	Sham Shui Po	4-2 HT 3-2	Citizen AA

Standings · Hong Kong 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Central & Western	3	3	0	0	13	1	9
2	Citizen AA	3	3	0	0	7	3	9
3	Tung Sing	3	3	0	0	6	2	9
4	Yuen Long	2	2	0	0	9	1	6
5	WSE	3	2	0	1	5	3	6
6	Resources Capital FC	2	1	1	0	6	2	4
7	Kui Tan SC	3	1	0	2	3	10	3
8	Hoi King	3	1	0	2	3	7	3
9	Sky Leader FC	3	1	0	2	2	8	3
10	Sham Shui Po	3	1	0	2	3	4	3
11	South China AA	3	0	1	2	2	4	1
12	Leaper FC	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
13	Bright Cerulean FC	2	0	0	2	1	6	0
14	Lucky Mile	3	0	0	3	3	10	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Citizen AA	Sham Shui Po
Lucky Mile	3-1 W	2-0 W
Leaper FC	2-1 W	2-1 W
South China AA	2-1 W	4-3 W
Sky Leader FC	3-4 L	0-4 L
WSE	3-6 L	1-2 L
Central & Western	2-5 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sham Shui Po (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Citizen AA

LLLWLLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Lucky Mile Hong Kong 1st Division	1-1	3-1	3	2	W
13/09	Leaper FC Hong Kong 1st Division	1-1	2-1	2	8	W
06/09	South China AA Hong Kong 1st Division	2-1	2-1	4	6	W
17/05	Sky Leader FC Hong Kong 1st Division	–	3-4	–	–	L
10/05	WSE Hong Kong 1st Division	1-2	3-6	3	2	L
03/05	Shatin Hong Kong 1st Division	1-1	2-3	5	5	L
26/04	Lucky Mile Hong Kong 1st Division	1-1	3-1	10	6	W
19/04	South China AA Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	1-2	4	2	L
12/04	Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division	–	2-5	–	–	L
22/03	Yuen Long Hong Kong 1st Division	0-2	0-4	3	4	L

Sham Shui Po

WWLDWDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Leaper FC Hong Kong 1st Division	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
13/09	Tung Sing Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
06/09	Hoi King Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
17/05	WSE Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	1-2	6	8	L
10/05	Resources Capital FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
26/04	South China AA Hong Kong 1st Division	1-2	4-3	2	4	W
19/04	Hoi King Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
12/04	Sky Leader FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-2	0-4	4	5	L
22/03	Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	3-0	6	0	W
15/03	Lucky Mile Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	2-0	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Citizen AA vs Sham Shui Po?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sham Shui Po win (40%). Probabilities: Citizen AA 37%, draw 23%, Sham Shui Po 40%.

How many goals are expected in Citizen AA vs Sham Shui Po?

The model expects 3.73 goals (Citizen AA 1.82 · Sham Shui Po 1.9), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Citizen AA vs Sham Shui Po?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.