Football · Hong Kong 1st Division · 27/09, 07:30

Prediction: Yuen Long vs Tung Sing

Team pages: Yuen Long · Tung Sing

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.5Total

Yuen Long1.44

Tung Sing2.06

1X2

26% 23% 51%

Yuen Long Draw Tung Sing

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Yuen Long 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Tung Sing 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Yuen Long 1–1–0 Tung Sing (2 last)

Tung Sing1-1Yuen Long
Yuen Long2-0Tung Sing

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Yuen Long 1539 · Tung Sing 1579

	Yuen Long	Draw	Tung Sing
Our model	26%	23%	51%
Market	26%	22%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 3.5 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tung Sing (rating 1539 vs 1579).
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Yuen Long	Tung Sing
Goals for / against (FT)	3.1 / 2.2	2.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	56/11/33%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.2	1.5 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0	3.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.40

X4.00

21.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)2.00

2 (-0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 4.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
03:12 +2’	3.40	4.00	1.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Yuen Long 1–1–0 Tung Sing

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Hong Kong 1st Division	Tung Sing	1-1 HT 0-1	Yuen Long
07/12/25 Hong Kong 1st Division	Yuen Long	2-0 HT 0-0	Tung Sing

Standings · Hong Kong 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Central & Western	3	3	0	0	13	1	9
2	Citizen AA	3	3	0	0	7	3	9
3	Tung Sing	3	3	0	0	6	2	9
4	Yuen Long	2	2	0	0	9	1	6
5	WSE	3	2	0	1	5	3	6
6	Resources Capital FC	2	1	1	0	6	2	4
7	Kui Tan SC	3	1	0	2	3	10	3
8	Hoi King	3	1	0	2	3	7	3
9	Sky Leader FC	3	1	0	2	2	8	3
10	Sham Shui Po	3	1	0	2	3	4	3
11	South China AA	3	0	1	2	2	4	1
12	Leaper FC	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
13	Bright Cerulean FC	2	0	0	2	1	6	0
14	Lucky Mile	3	0	0	3	3	10	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Yuen Long	Tung Sing
Shatin	0-2 L	2-0 W
WSE	3-8 L	2-1 W
Citizen AA	4-0 W	4-0 W
Lucky Mile	5-0 W	6-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Tung Sing (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Yuen Long

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Bright Cerulean FC Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	3-1	6	1	W
13/09	Kui Tan SC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	6-0	3	4	W
17/05	Bright Cerulean FC Hong Kong 1st Division	–	3-1	–	–	W
10/05	Shatin Hong Kong 1st Division	0-2	0-2	5	2	L
26/04	Sky Leader FC Hong Kong 1st Division	1-2	1-5	2	0	L
19/04	Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	2-2	4	2	D
12/04	WSE Hong Kong 1st Division	0-3	3-8	10	1	L
22/03	Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division	2-0	4-0	3	4	W
15/03	Hoi King Hong Kong 1st Division	2-1	4-3	3	5	W
08/03	Lucky Mile Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	5-0	11	1	W

Tung Sing

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	WSE Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	2-1	1	2	W
13/09	Sham Shui Po Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	2-1	6	4	W
06/09	Supreme FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	2-0	4	3	W
17/05	Lucky Mile Hong Kong 1st Division	3-2	6-2	2	3	W
10/05	South China AA Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
26/04	WSE Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
19/04	Resources Capital FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
12/04	Kwun Tong Hong Kong 1st Division	0-2	3-2	6	5	W
22/03	Shatin Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	2-0	4	5	W
15/03	Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division	3-0	4-0	1	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Yuen Long vs Tung Sing?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Tung Sing win (51%). Probabilities: Yuen Long 26%, draw 23%, Tung Sing 51%.

How many goals are expected in Yuen Long vs Tung Sing?

The model expects 3.5 goals (Yuen Long 1.44 · Tung Sing 2.06), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Yuen Long vs Tung Sing?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.