Football · Hong Kong 1st Division · 25/10, 09:45

Prediction: Lucky Mile vs Bright Cerulean FC

Team pages: Lucky Mile · Bright Cerulean FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.88Total

Lucky Mile1.93

Bright Cerulean FC1.95

1X2

39% 22% 39%

Lucky Mile Draw Bright Cerulean FC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Lucky Mile 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLDLL

Bright Cerulean FC 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLWW

Head-to-head

Lucky Mile 0–1–2 Bright Cerulean FC (3 last)

Bright Cerulean FC1-1Lucky Mile
Lucky Mile0-1Bright Cerulean FC
Bright Cerulean FC3-1Lucky Mile

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lucky Mile 1383 · Bright Cerulean FC 1428

	Lucky Mile	Draw	Bright Cerulean FC
Our model	38%	23%	39%
Market	39%	21%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.88 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bright Cerulean FC (rating 1383 vs 1428).
H2H favours Bright Cerulean FC: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lucky Mile	Bright Cerulean FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 3.7	1.1 / 3.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.7	0.9 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	29/14/57%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4	1 / 2.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X4.20

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.98

Under 3.751.82

Diff.: 1.2 · xG: 4.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:29 +4’	2.30	4.20	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lucky Mile 0–1–2 Bright Cerulean FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Hong Kong 1st Division	Bright Cerulean FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Lucky Mile
21/12/25 Hong Kong 1st Division	Lucky Mile	0-1 HT 0-0	Bright Cerulean FC
05/02/23 Hong Kong 2nd Division	Bright Cerulean FC	3-1 HT 0-0	Lucky Mile

Standings · Hong Kong 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Yuen Long	6	5	1	0	20	4	16
2	WSE	7	5	1	1	16	7	16
3	Resources Capital FC	6	4	2	0	31	8	14
4	South China AA	7	4	1	2	9	5	13
5	Tung Sing	7	4	1	2	10	7	13
6	Central & Western	6	4	0	2	22	9	12
7	Hoi King	7	3	2	2	13	13	11
8	Citizen AA	7	3	2	2	10	11	11
9	Sham Shui Po	7	2	1	4	8	13	7
10	Bright Cerulean FC	6	2	0	4	7	22	6
11	Sky Leader FC	7	2	0	5	6	22	6
12	Kui Tan SC	7	1	1	5	9	21	4
13	Leaper FC	5	0	1	4	4	8	1
14	Lucky Mile	7	0	1	6	7	22	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lucky Mile	Bright Cerulean FC
Yuen Long	0-2 L	1-3 L
Kui Tan SC	3-3 D	2-1 W
Central & Western	1-5 L	0-3 L
Tung Sing	2-6 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Bright Cerulean FC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lucky Mile

LLLLLLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	South China AA Hong Kong 1st Division	0-3	1-4	3	3	L
11/10	Yuen Long Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	0-2	3	3	L
04/10	Kui Tan SC Hong Kong 1st Division	2-1	3-3	3	6	D
27/09	Hoi King Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	0-3	3	1	L
20/09	Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division	1-1	1-3	10	2	L
13/09	Sky Leader FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	1-2	4	2	L
06/09	Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division	0-3	1-5	3	3	L
17/05	Tung Sing Hong Kong 1st Division	2-3	2-6	2	3	L
10/05	Sky Leader FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-4	3-6	5	1	L
26/04	Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division	1-1	1-3	4	6	L

Bright Cerulean FC

LLLLLLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Kui Tan SC Hong Kong 1st Division	2-1	2-1	5	3	W
11/10	Tung Sing Hong Kong 1st Division	2-0	2-1	3	7	W
04/10	WSE Hong Kong 1st Division	–	1-4	1	4	L
27/09	Resources Capital FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-3	1-10	3	3	L
20/09	Yuen Long Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	1-3	1	1	L
13/09	Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	0-3	0	2	L
17/05	Yuen Long Hong Kong 1st Division	–	1-3	–	–	L
10/05	Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division	1-2	1-6	2	3	L
26/04	Shatin Hong Kong 1st Division	1-2	1-5	2	0	L
19/04	Kwun Tong Hong Kong 1st Division	–	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lucky Mile vs Bright Cerulean FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lucky Mile win (39%). Probabilities: Lucky Mile 39%, draw 22%, Bright Cerulean FC 39%.

How many goals are expected in Lucky Mile vs Bright Cerulean FC?

The model expects 3.88 goals (Lucky Mile 1.93 · Bright Cerulean FC 1.95), with a 52% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Lucky Mile vs Bright Cerulean FC?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.