Football · Hong Kong 1st Division · 25/10, 06:30

Prediction: Yuen Long vs Central & Western

Team pages: Yuen Long · Central & Western

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.88Total

Yuen Long2.09

Central & Western1.79

1X2

45% 22% 33%

Yuen Long Draw Central & Western

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Yuen Long 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DLLWWWDWWW

Central & Western 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

DLWWWWWWLL

Head-to-head

Yuen Long 1–3–2 Central & Western (6 last)

Yuen Long2-2Central & Western
Central & Western1-0Yuen Long
Yuen Long0-4Central & Western
Yuen Long1-1Central & Western
Central & Western0-0Yuen Long
Central & Western2-3Yuen Long

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Yuen Long 1550 · Central & Western 1536

	Yuen Long	Draw	Central & Western
Our model	45%	22%	33%
Market	45%	22%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.88 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Central & Western: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Yuen Long	Central & Western
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.4	3.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	1.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	44/22/33%	44/22/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3	2.8 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X4.10

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.98

Under 3.751.82

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 4.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:11 +21’	2.00	4.10	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Yuen Long 1–3–2 Central & Western

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Hong Kong 1st Division	Yuen Long	2-2 HT 1-0	Central & Western
26/10/25 Hong Kong 1st Division	Central & Western	1-0 HT 0-0	Yuen Long
25/05/25 Hong Kong FA Cup Junior Division	Yuen Long	0-4 HT 0-0	Central & Western
09/02/25 Hong Kong 1st Division	Yuen Long	1-1 HT 1-0	Central & Western
22/12/24 Hong Kong 1st Division	Central & Western	0-0 HT 0-0	Yuen Long
10/03/24 Hong Kong 1st Division	Central & Western	2-3 HT 2-2	Yuen Long

Standings · Hong Kong 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Yuen Long	6	5	1	0	20	4	16
2	WSE	7	5	1	1	16	7	16
3	Resources Capital FC	6	4	2	0	31	8	14
4	South China AA	7	4	1	2	9	5	13
5	Tung Sing	7	4	1	2	10	7	13
6	Central & Western	6	4	0	2	22	9	12
7	Hoi King	7	3	2	2	13	13	11
8	Citizen AA	7	3	2	2	10	11	11
9	Sham Shui Po	7	2	1	4	8	13	7
10	Bright Cerulean FC	6	2	0	4	7	22	6
11	Sky Leader FC	7	2	0	5	6	22	6
12	Kui Tan SC	7	1	1	5	9	21	4
13	Leaper FC	5	0	1	4	4	8	1
14	Lucky Mile	7	0	1	6	7	22	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Yuen Long	Central & Western
Lucky Mile	2-0 W	5-1 W
Bright Cerulean FC	3-1 W	3-0 W
Kui Tan SC	6-0 W	4-1 W
Sky Leader FC	1-5 L	5-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Central & Western (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Yuen Long

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Sham Shui Po Hong Kong 1st Division	2-1	4-1	2	3	W
11/10	Lucky Mile Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	2-0	1	3	W
04/10	Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	3-0	2	2	W
27/09	Tung Sing Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	2-2	2	8	D
20/09	Bright Cerulean FC Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	3-1	6	1	W
13/09	Kui Tan SC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	6-0	3	4	W
17/05	Bright Cerulean FC Hong Kong 1st Division	–	3-1	–	–	W
10/05	Shatin Hong Kong 1st Division	0-2	0-2	5	2	L
26/04	Sky Leader FC Hong Kong 1st Division	1-2	1-5	2	0	L
19/04	Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	2-2	4	2	D

Central & Western

DLWWWWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Hoi King Hong Kong 1st Division	1-1	2-3	0	4	L
04/10	Resources Capital FC Hong Kong 1st Division	1-2	3-4	4	7	L
27/09	Kui Tan SC Hong Kong 1st Division	2-1	4-1	5	5	W
20/09	Sky Leader FC Hong Kong 1st Division	2-0	5-0	2	3	W
13/09	Bright Cerulean FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	3-0	5	2	W
06/09	Lucky Mile Hong Kong 1st Division	3-0	5-1	7	3	W
17/05	Resources Capital FC Hong Kong 1st Division	–	5-2	–	–	W
10/05	Bright Cerulean FC Hong Kong 1st Division	2-1	6-1	5	3	W
26/04	Hoi King Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
19/04	Yuen Long Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	2-2	9	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Yuen Long vs Central & Western?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Yuen Long win (45%). Probabilities: Yuen Long 45%, draw 22%, Central & Western 33%.

How many goals are expected in Yuen Long vs Central & Western?

The model expects 3.88 goals (Yuen Long 2.09 · Central & Western 1.79), with a 52% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Yuen Long vs Central & Western?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.