Football · Hong Kong 1st Division · 25/10, 08:30

Prediction: Tung Sing vs Citizen AA

Team pages: Tung Sing · Citizen AA

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.44Total

Tung Sing1.92

Citizen AA1.53

1X2

47% 23% 31%

Tung Sing Draw Citizen AA

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Tung Sing 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWDLLW

Citizen AA 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWWWDLDL

Head-to-head

Tung Sing 2–2–2 Citizen AA (6 last)

Citizen AA0-4Tung Sing
Tung Sing3-1Citizen AA
Tung Sing2-2Citizen AA
Citizen AA4-2Tung Sing
Citizen AA4-4Tung Sing
Tung Sing2-5Citizen AA

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tung Sing 1523 · Citizen AA 1471

	Tung Sing	Draw	Citizen AA
Our model	46%	24%	30%
Market	47%	21%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.44 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tung Sing (rating 1523 vs 1471).
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tung Sing	Citizen AA
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.2	1.8 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	11/33/56%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.4	1.9 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.4	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.91

X4.20

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
16:24 +9’	1.91	4.20	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tung Sing 2–2–2 Citizen AA

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Hong Kong 1st Division	Citizen AA	0-4 HT 0-3	Tung Sing
21/09/25 Hong Kong 1st Division	Tung Sing	3-1 HT 1-1	Citizen AA
13/05/18 Hong Kong 1st Division	Tung Sing	2-2 HT 1-2	Citizen AA
07/10/17 Hong Kong 1st Division	Citizen AA	4-2 HT 1-1	Tung Sing
19/03/17 Hong Kong 1st Division	Citizen AA	4-4 HT 0-0	Tung Sing
10/12/16 Hong Kong 1st Division	Tung Sing	2-5 HT 2-2	Citizen AA

Standings · Hong Kong 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Yuen Long	6	5	1	0	20	4	16
2	WSE	7	5	1	1	16	7	16
3	Resources Capital FC	6	4	2	0	31	8	14
4	South China AA	7	4	1	2	9	5	13
5	Tung Sing	7	4	1	2	10	7	13
6	Central & Western	6	4	0	2	22	9	12
7	Hoi King	7	3	2	2	13	13	11
8	Citizen AA	7	3	2	2	10	11	11
9	Sham Shui Po	7	2	1	4	8	13	7
10	Bright Cerulean FC	6	2	0	4	7	22	6
11	Sky Leader FC	7	2	0	5	6	22	6
12	Kui Tan SC	7	1	1	5	9	21	4
13	Leaper FC	5	0	1	4	4	8	1
14	Lucky Mile	7	0	1	6	7	22	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tung Sing	Citizen AA
Leaper FC	1-0 W	2-1 W
South China AA	0-1 L	2-1 W
Yuen Long	2-2 D	0-3 L
WSE	2-1 W	0-2 L
Sham Shui Po	2-1 W	1-1 D
Lucky Mile	6-2 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Tung Sing (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tung Sing

LLWWWWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Leaper FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
11/10	Bright Cerulean FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-2	1-2	7	7	L
04/10	South China AA Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	0-1	7	1	L
27/09	Yuen Long Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	2-2	4	8	D
20/09	WSE Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	2-1	1	2	W
13/09	Sham Shui Po Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	2-1	6	4	W
06/09	Supreme FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	2-0	4	3	W
17/05	Lucky Mile Hong Kong 1st Division	3-2	6-2	2	3	W
10/05	South China AA Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
26/04	WSE Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	0-1	2	1	L

Citizen AA

LLLWWWDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	WSE Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
11/10	Hoi King Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	2-2	5	6	D
04/10	Yuen Long Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	0-3	12	2	L
27/09	Sham Shui Po Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	1-1	3	7	D
20/09	Lucky Mile Hong Kong 1st Division	1-1	3-1	3	2	W
13/09	Leaper FC Hong Kong 1st Division	1-1	2-1	2	8	W
06/09	South China AA Hong Kong 1st Division	2-1	2-1	4	6	W
17/05	Sky Leader FC Hong Kong 1st Division	–	3-4	–	–	L
10/05	WSE Hong Kong 1st Division	1-2	3-6	3	2	L
03/05	Shatin Hong Kong 1st Division	1-1	2-3	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tung Sing vs Citizen AA?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tung Sing win (47%). Probabilities: Tung Sing 47%, draw 23%, Citizen AA 31%.

How many goals are expected in Tung Sing vs Citizen AA?

The model expects 3.44 goals (Tung Sing 1.92 · Citizen AA 1.53), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Tung Sing vs Citizen AA?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.