Football · Hong Kong 1st Division · 25/10, 06:30
Prediction: Sham Shui Po vs South China AA
Team pages: Sham Shui Po · South China AA
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.88Total
Sham Shui Po1.11
South China AA1.77
1X2
Sham Shui Po
Draw
South China AA
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Sham Shui Po
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
South China AA
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sham Shui Po
2–2–2
South China AA
(6 last)
- South China AA3-4Sham Shui Po
- Sham Shui Po1-0South China AA
- Sham Shui Po0-3South China AA
- Sham Shui Po0-0South China AA
- South China AA5-1Sham Shui Po
- Sham Shui Po1-1South China AA
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sham Shui Po 1483 · South China AA 1539
| Sham Shui Po | Draw | South China AA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 26% | 52% |
| Market | 25% | 21% | 54% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.88 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours South China AA (rating 1483 vs 1539).
- Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sham Shui Po | South China AA | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.8 | 1.8 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1 | 1.2 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.1 | 2.2 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.2 | 3.8 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sham Shui Po 2–2–2 South China AA
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 Hong Kong 1st Division | South China AA | 3-4 HT 2-1 | Sham Shui Po |
| 30/11/25 Hong Kong 1st Division | Sham Shui Po | 1-0 HT 0-0 | South China AA |
| 01/06/25 Hong Kong FA Cup Junior Division | Sham Shui Po | 0-3 HT 0-1 | South China AA |
| 09/02/25 Hong Kong 1st Division | Sham Shui Po | 0-0 HT 0-0 | South China AA |
| 15/12/24 Hong Kong 1st Division | South China AA | 5-1 HT 3-0 | Sham Shui Po |
| 12/06/22 Hong Kong Division One League Cup | Sham Shui Po | 1-1 HT 0-1 | South China AA |
Standings · Hong Kong 1st Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yuen Long | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 4 | 16 |
| 2 | WSE | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | Resources Capital FC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 31 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | South China AA | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Tung Sing | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 13 |
| 6 | Central & Western | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 12 |
| 7 | Hoi King | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 11 |
| 8 | Citizen AA | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 11 |
| 9 | Sham Shui Po | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 7 |
| 10 | Bright Cerulean FC | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 6 |
| 11 | Sky Leader FC | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 22 | 6 |
| 12 | Kui Tan SC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 4 |
| 13 | Leaper FC | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| 14 | Lucky Mile | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 22 | 1 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sham Shui Po | South China AA |
|---|---|---|
| Sky Leader FC | 1-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Citizen AA | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Leaper FC | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Tung Sing | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| WSE | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Resources Capital FC | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 3 L | 3 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: South China AA (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sham Shui Po
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Yuen Long Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-2 | 1-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 11/10 | Kui Tan SC Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 04/10 | Sky Leader FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-2 | 1-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 27/09 | Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 20/09 | Leaper FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 13/09 | Tung Sing Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 06/09 | Hoi King Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 17/05 | WSE Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 10/05 | Resources Capital FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 26/04 | South China AA Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-2 | 4-3 | 2 | 4 | W |
South China AA
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Lucky Mile Hong Kong 1st Division |
3-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 11/10 | Sky Leader FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 04/10 | Tung Sing Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 27/09 | Leaper FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | Resources Capital FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 10 | D |
| 13/09 | WSE Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 06/09 | Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | Kwun Tong Hong Kong 1st Division |
3-1 | 4-2 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 10/05 | Tung Sing Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 26/04 | Sham Shui Po Hong Kong 1st Division |
2-1 | 3-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sham Shui Po vs South China AA?
According to our model, the most likely result is an South China AA win (53%). Probabilities: Sham Shui Po 24%, draw 23%, South China AA 53%.
How many goals are expected in Sham Shui Po vs South China AA?
The model expects 2.88 goals (Sham Shui Po 1.11 · South China AA 1.77), with a 57% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Sham Shui Po vs South China AA?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.