Football · Hong Kong 1st Division · 18/10, 09:00

Prediction: Sham Shui Po vs Yuen Long

Team pages: Sham Shui Po · Yuen Long

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

Sham Shui Po1.23

Yuen Long1.98

1X2

23% 22% 55%

Sham Shui Po Draw Yuen Long

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Sham Shui Po 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWDLLLWDLW

Yuen Long 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LDLLWWWDWW

Head-to-head

Sham Shui Po 2–3–1 Yuen Long (6 last)

Yuen Long1-1Sham Shui Po
Sham Shui Po2-2Yuen Long
Yuen Long0-0Sham Shui Po
Sham Shui Po1-2Yuen Long
Sham Shui Po1-0Yuen Long
Yuen Long0-1Sham Shui Po

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sham Shui Po 1501 · Yuen Long 1523

	Sham Shui Po	Draw	Yuen Long
Our model	23%	24%	54%
Market	24%	21%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sham Shui Po: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sham Shui Po	Yuen Long
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.4	2.5 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	33/22/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.7	2 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.2	2.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.70

X4.33

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.00

2 (-0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
15:25 +6’	3.70	4.33	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sham Shui Po 2–3–1 Yuen Long

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/02/26 Hong Kong 1st Division	Yuen Long	1-1 HT 0-1	Sham Shui Po
28/09/25 Hong Kong 1st Division	Sham Shui Po	2-2 HT 1-1	Yuen Long
27/04/25 Hong Kong 1st Division	Yuen Long	0-0 HT 0-0	Sham Shui Po
10/11/24 Hong Kong 1st Division	Sham Shui Po	1-2 HT 0-0	Yuen Long
29/05/22 Hong Kong Division One League Cup	Sham Shui Po	1-0 HT 0-0	Yuen Long
26/09/21 Hong Kong 1st Division	Yuen Long	0-1 HT 0-1	Sham Shui Po

Standings · Hong Kong 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Yuen Long	5	4	1	0	16	3	13
2	WSE	6	4	1	1	14	7	13
3	Central & Western	5	4	0	1	20	6	12
4	Resources Capital FC	5	3	2	0	22	8	11
5	Citizen AA	6	3	2	1	10	9	11
6	South China AA	6	3	1	2	5	4	10
7	Tung Sing	6	3	1	2	9	7	10
8	Hoi King	6	2	2	2	10	11	8
9	Sham Shui Po	6	2	1	3	7	9	7
10	Sky Leader FC	6	2	0	4	6	13	6
11	Kui Tan SC	6	1	1	4	8	19	4
12	Bright Cerulean FC	5	1	0	4	5	21	3
13	Leaper FC	4	0	1	3	4	7	1
14	Lucky Mile	6	0	1	5	6	18	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sham Shui Po	Yuen Long
Kui Tan SC	2-1 W	6-0 W
Sky Leader FC	1-3 L	1-5 L
Citizen AA	1-1 D	3-0 W
Tung Sing	1-2 L	2-2 D
WSE	1-2 L	3-8 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Yuen Long (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sham Shui Po

DWDLLLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Kui Tan SC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	2-1	2	4	W
04/10	Sky Leader FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-2	1-3	9	4	L
27/09	Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
20/09	Leaper FC Hong Kong 1st Division	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
13/09	Tung Sing Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
06/09	Hoi King Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
17/05	WSE Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	1-2	6	8	L
10/05	Resources Capital FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
26/04	South China AA Hong Kong 1st Division	1-2	4-3	2	4	W
19/04	Hoi King Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	0-0	1	2	D

Yuen Long

LDLLWWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Lucky Mile Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	2-0	1	3	W
04/10	Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	3-0	2	2	W
27/09	Tung Sing Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	2-2	2	8	D
20/09	Bright Cerulean FC Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	3-1	6	1	W
13/09	Kui Tan SC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	6-0	3	4	W
17/05	Bright Cerulean FC Hong Kong 1st Division	–	3-1	–	–	W
10/05	Shatin Hong Kong 1st Division	0-2	0-2	5	2	L
26/04	Sky Leader FC Hong Kong 1st Division	1-2	1-5	2	0	L
19/04	Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	2-2	4	2	D
12/04	WSE Hong Kong 1st Division	0-3	3-8	10	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sham Shui Po vs Yuen Long?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Yuen Long win (55%). Probabilities: Sham Shui Po 23%, draw 22%, Yuen Long 55%.

How many goals are expected in Sham Shui Po vs Yuen Long?

The model expects 3.22 goals (Sham Shui Po 1.23 · Yuen Long 1.98), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sham Shui Po vs Yuen Long?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.