Football · Hong Kong 1st Division · 25/10, 08:30

Prediction: Hoi King vs WSE

Team pages: Hoi King · WSE

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.74Total

Hoi King1.26

WSE2.48

1X2

18% 19% 64%

Hoi King Draw WSE

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Hoi King 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWLLWDDW

WSE 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLWWDW

Head-to-head

Hoi King 2–3 WSE (5 last)

WSE0-2Hoi King
Hoi King0-5WSE
WSE4-2Hoi King
WSE3-0Hoi King
Hoi King4-2WSE

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hoi King 1541 · WSE 1594

	Hoi King	Draw	WSE
Our model	17%	20%	63%
Market	18%	18%	64%

Estimated total (ours) 3.74 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours WSE (rating 1541 vs 1594).
H2H favours WSE: 3-0-2.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hoi King	WSE
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.5	2.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	44/44/11%	67/22/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.6	1.9 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.00

X5.00

21.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.82

2 (-1.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.98

Under 3.751.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:36 +21’	5.00	5.00	1.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Hoi King 2–0–3 WSE

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/26 Hong Kong FA Cup Junior Division	WSE	0-2 HT 0-0	Hoi King
22/03/26 Hong Kong 1st Division	Hoi King	0-5 HT 0-5	WSE
21/12/25 Hong Kong 1st Division	WSE	4-2 HT 1-0	Hoi King
30/03/25 Hong Kong 1st Division	WSE	3-0 HT 3-0	Hoi King
16/03/25 Hong Kong 1st Division	Hoi King	4-2 HT 4-1	WSE

Standings · Hong Kong 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Yuen Long	6	5	1	0	20	4	16
2	WSE	7	5	1	1	16	7	16
3	Resources Capital FC	6	4	2	0	31	8	14
4	South China AA	7	4	1	2	9	5	13
5	Tung Sing	7	4	1	2	10	7	13
6	Central & Western	6	4	0	2	22	9	12
7	Hoi King	7	3	2	2	13	13	11
8	Citizen AA	7	3	2	2	10	11	11
9	Sham Shui Po	7	2	1	4	8	13	7
10	Bright Cerulean FC	6	2	0	4	7	22	6
11	Sky Leader FC	7	2	0	5	6	22	6
12	Kui Tan SC	7	1	1	5	9	21	4
13	Leaper FC	5	0	1	4	4	8	1
14	Lucky Mile	7	0	1	6	7	22	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hoi King	WSE
Citizen AA	2-2 D	2-0 W
Kui Tan SC	1-2 L	3-1 W
Resources Capital FC	1-5 L	2-2 D
Sham Shui Po	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: WSE (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hoi King

DWWWLLWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division	1-1	3-2	6	4	W
11/10	Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	2-2	7	6	D
04/10	Leaper FC Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	2-2	4	7	D
27/09	Lucky Mile Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	3-0	5	1	W
20/09	Kui Tan SC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	1-2	9	4	L
13/09	Resources Capital FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	1-5	5	1	L
06/09	Sham Shui Po Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
17/05	Shatin Hong Kong 1st Division	–	3-2	–	–	W
26/04	Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
19/04	Sham Shui Po Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	0-0	6	2	D

WSE

WWWWWLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
11/10	Resources Capital FC Hong Kong 1st Division	1-2	2-2	4	4	D
04/10	Bright Cerulean FC Hong Kong 1st Division	–	4-1	6	4	W
27/09	Sky Leader FC Hong Kong 1st Division	2-1	3-1	5	4	W
20/09	Tung Sing Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	1-2	5	2	L
13/09	South China AA Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
06/09	Kui Tan SC Hong Kong 1st Division	2-0	3-1	1	5	W
17/05	Sham Shui Po Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	2-1	4	8	W
10/05	Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division	2-1	6-3	7	2	W
26/04	Tung Sing Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	1-0	7	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hoi King vs WSE?

According to our model, the most likely result is an WSE win (64%). Probabilities: Hoi King 18%, draw 19%, WSE 64%.

How many goals are expected in Hoi King vs WSE?

The model expects 3.74 goals (Hoi King 1.26 · WSE 2.48), with a 53% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hoi King vs WSE?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.