Football · Hong Kong 1st Division · 08/11, 08:30
Prediction: Hoi King vs Bright Cerulean FC
Team pages: Hoi King · Bright Cerulean FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.96Total
Hoi King2.73
Bright Cerulean FC1.23
1X2
Hoi King
Draw
Bright Cerulean FC
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
2-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Hoi King
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Bright Cerulean FC
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hoi King
4–2–0
Bright Cerulean FC
(6 last)
- Bright Cerulean FC1-1Hoi King
- Hoi King2-2Bright Cerulean FC
- Bright Cerulean FC0-1Hoi King
- Hoi King3-1Bright Cerulean FC
- Hoi King5-3Bright Cerulean FC
- Bright Cerulean FC2-3Hoi King
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hoi King 1547 · Bright Cerulean FC 1412
| Hoi King | Draw | Bright Cerulean FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 17% | 14% |
| Market | 70% | 15% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.96 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hoi King (rating 1547 vs 1412).
- H2H favours Hoi King: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hoi King | Bright Cerulean FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.6 | 1 / 3.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.2 | 0.8 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 56/33/11% | 25/13/63% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5.3 | 1.5 / 2.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.2 | 3.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hoi King 4–2–0 Bright Cerulean FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/26 Hong Kong 1st Division | Bright Cerulean FC | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Hoi King |
| 12/10/25 Hong Kong 1st Division | Hoi King | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Bright Cerulean FC |
| 11/05/25 Hong Kong 1st Division | Bright Cerulean FC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Hoi King |
| 29/09/24 Hong Kong 1st Division | Hoi King | 3-1 HT 3-1 | Bright Cerulean FC |
| 19/05/24 Hong Kong 1st Division | Hoi King | 5-3 HT 0-2 | Bright Cerulean FC |
| 10/12/23 Hong Kong 1st Division | Bright Cerulean FC | 2-3 HT 0-1 | Hoi King |
Standings · Hong Kong 1st Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yuen Long | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 5 | 19 |
| 2 | Resources Capital FC | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 37 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | WSE | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | South China AA | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | Citizen AA | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 14 |
| 6 | Tung Sing | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 13 |
| 7 | Hoi King | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 14 | 12 |
| 8 | Central & Western | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 12 | 12 |
| 9 | Sky Leader FC | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 24 | 7 |
| 10 | Sham Shui Po | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 7 |
| 11 | Bright Cerulean FC | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 25 | 6 |
| 12 | Lucky Mile | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 22 | 4 |
| 13 | Kui Tan SC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 4 |
| 14 | Leaper FC | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 2 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hoi King | Bright Cerulean FC |
|---|---|---|
| WSE | 1-1 D | 1-4 L |
| Central & Western | 3-2 W | 0-3 L |
| Lucky Mile | 3-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Kui Tan SC | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Resources Capital FC | 1-5 L | 1-10 L |
| Shatin | 3-2 W | 1-5 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Hoi King (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hoi King
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | WSE Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 18/10 | Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 11/10 | Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 04/10 | Leaper FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 27/09 | Lucky Mile Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 20/09 | Kui Tan SC Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 13/09 | Resources Capital FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-1 | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 06/09 | Sham Shui Po Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 17/05 | Shatin Hong Kong 1st Division |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 26/04 | Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
Bright Cerulean FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Lucky Mile Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-2 | 0-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 18/10 | Kui Tan SC Hong Kong 1st Division |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 11/10 | Tung Sing Hong Kong 1st Division |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 04/10 | WSE Hong Kong 1st Division |
– | 1-4 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 27/09 | Resources Capital FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-3 | 1-10 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 20/09 | Yuen Long Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 13/09 | Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 0-3 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 17/05 | Yuen Long Hong Kong 1st Division |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 10/05 | Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-2 | 1-6 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | Shatin Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-2 | 1-5 | 2 | 0 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hoi King vs Bright Cerulean FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Hoi King win (69%). Probabilities: Hoi King 69%, draw 16%, Bright Cerulean FC 15%.
How many goals are expected in Hoi King vs Bright Cerulean FC?
The model expects 3.96 goals (Hoi King 2.73 · Bright Cerulean FC 1.23), with a 55% chance of under 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Hoi King vs Bright Cerulean FC?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.