Football · Hong Kong 1st Division · 15/11, 08:30
Prediction: South China AA vs Bright Cerulean FC
Team pages: South China AA · Bright Cerulean FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.94Total
South China AA2.97
Bright Cerulean FC0.97
1X2
South China AA
Draw
Bright Cerulean FC
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
2-0 9%
Recent form · 10 last
South China AA
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Bright Cerulean FC
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
South China AA
4–2–0
Bright Cerulean FC
(6 last)
- Bright Cerulean FC0-3South China AA
- South China AA4-0Bright Cerulean FC
- South China AA3-2Bright Cerulean FC
- South China AA1-1Bright Cerulean FC
- Bright Cerulean FC1-4South China AA
- South China AA1-1Bright Cerulean FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · South China AA 1581 · Bright Cerulean FC 1390
| South China AA | Draw | Bright Cerulean FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| Market | 90% | 6% | 4% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.94 goals · Bet365 line 4.75 · -0.8
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours South China AA (rating 1581 vs 1390).
- H2H favours South China AA: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| South China AA | Bright Cerulean FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 4.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.3 | 0.6 / 1.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 25/13/63% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 6 | 1.5 / 2.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.4 | 3.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · South China AA 4–2–0 Bright Cerulean FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 Hong Kong 1st Division | Bright Cerulean FC | 0-3 HT 0-0 | South China AA |
| 23/11/25 Hong Kong 1st Division | South China AA | 4-0 HT 0-0 | Bright Cerulean FC |
| 13/04/25 Hong Kong FA Cup Junior Division | South China AA | 3-2 HT 0-2 | Bright Cerulean FC |
| 30/03/25 Hong Kong 1st Division | South China AA | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Bright Cerulean FC |
| 13/10/24 Hong Kong 1st Division | Bright Cerulean FC | 1-4 HT 1-4 | South China AA |
| 28/04/24 Hong Kong FA Cup Junior Division | South China AA | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Bright Cerulean FC |
Standings · Hong Kong 1st Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yuen Long | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 5 | 22 |
| 2 | Resources Capital FC | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 41 | 9 | 20 |
| 3 | WSE | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 9 | 17 |
| 4 | South China AA | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 17 |
| 5 | Tung Sing | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | Hoi King | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 14 | 15 |
| 7 | Citizen AA | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 15 | 14 |
| 8 | Central & Western | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 13 | 13 |
| 9 | Sham Shui Po | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 10 |
| 10 | Kui Tan SC | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 27 | 7 |
| 11 | Sky Leader FC | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 26 | 7 |
| 12 | Bright Cerulean FC | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 32 | 6 |
| 13 | Lucky Mile | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 25 | 4 |
| 14 | Leaper FC | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 2 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | South China AA | Bright Cerulean FC |
|---|---|---|
| Central & Western | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| Lucky Mile | 4-1 W | 0-3 L |
| Tung Sing | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Resources Capital FC | 1-1 D | 1-10 L |
| WSE | 0-1 L | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: South China AA (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
South China AA
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 25/10 | Sham Shui Po Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 18/10 | Lucky Mile Hong Kong 1st Division |
3-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 11/10 | Sky Leader FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 04/10 | Tung Sing Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 27/09 | Leaper FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | Resources Capital FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 10 | D |
| 13/09 | WSE Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 06/09 | Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | Kwun Tong Hong Kong 1st Division |
3-1 | 4-2 | 8 | 0 | W |
Bright Cerulean FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Hoi King Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-4 | 0-7 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 25/10 | Lucky Mile Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-2 | 0-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 18/10 | Kui Tan SC Hong Kong 1st Division |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 11/10 | Tung Sing Hong Kong 1st Division |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 04/10 | WSE Hong Kong 1st Division |
– | 1-4 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 27/09 | Resources Capital FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-3 | 1-10 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 20/09 | Yuen Long Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 13/09 | Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 0-3 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 17/05 | Yuen Long Hong Kong 1st Division |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 10/05 | Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-2 | 1-6 | 2 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in South China AA vs Bright Cerulean FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a South China AA win (84%). Probabilities: South China AA 84%, draw 10%, Bright Cerulean FC 6%.
How many goals are expected in South China AA vs Bright Cerulean FC?
The model expects 3.94 goals (South China AA 2.97 · Bright Cerulean FC 0.97), with a 60% chance of under 4.75 goals.
Will both teams score in South China AA vs Bright Cerulean FC?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.