Football · Hong Kong 1st Division · 15/11, 08:30

Prediction: Yuen Long vs WSE

Team pages: Yuen Long · WSE

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.73Total

Yuen Long1.76

WSE1.97

1X2

34% 23% 43%

Yuen Long Draw WSE

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Yuen Long 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWDWWWWW

WSE 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWDWDL

Head-to-head

Yuen Long 3–2 WSE (5 last)

Yuen Long3-8WSE
WSE4-0Yuen Long
WSE1-2Yuen Long
Yuen Long3-1WSE
WSE0-3Yuen Long

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Yuen Long 1576 · WSE 1574

	Yuen Long	Draw	WSE
Our model	34%	23%	43%
Market	35%	23%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.73 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Yuen Long: 3-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Yuen Long	WSE
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 0.8	1.9 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	56/22/22%	56/11/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.2	1.1 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.60

X4.00

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 12:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.60▲	Bet365 2.60
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.20 → 2.10▼	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
07:59 +9’	2.45	4.00	2.20
10:00 +15’	2.70▲	4.10▲	2.05▼
12:16 +15’	2.60▼	4.00▼	2.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Yuen Long 3–0–2 WSE

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Hong Kong 1st Division	Yuen Long	3-8 HT 0-3	WSE
23/11/25 Hong Kong 1st Division	WSE	4-0 HT 1-0	Yuen Long
19/01/25 Hong Kong 1st Division	WSE	1-2 HT 1-1	Yuen Long
27/10/24 Hong Kong 1st Division	Yuen Long	3-1 HT 1-1	WSE
24/04/24 Hong Kong FA Cup Junior Division	WSE	0-3 HT 0-3	Yuen Long

Standings · Hong Kong 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Yuen Long	8	7	1	0	26	5	22
2	Resources Capital FC	8	6	2	0	41	9	20
3	WSE	9	5	2	2	17	9	17
4	South China AA	9	5	2	2	11	6	17
5	Tung Sing	9	5	1	3	13	8	16
6	Hoi King	9	4	3	2	21	14	15
7	Citizen AA	9	4	2	3	12	15	14
8	Central & Western	8	4	1	3	24	13	13
9	Sham Shui Po	9	3	1	5	9	14	10
10	Kui Tan SC	9	2	1	6	11	27	7
11	Sky Leader FC	9	2	1	6	8	26	7
12	Bright Cerulean FC	8	2	0	6	7	32	6
13	Lucky Mile	9	1	1	7	10	25	4
14	Leaper FC	7	0	2	5	6	13	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Yuen Long	WSE
Sham Shui Po	4-1 W	0-1 L
Citizen AA	3-0 W	2-0 W
Tung Sing	2-2 D	1-2 L
Bright Cerulean FC	3-1 W	4-1 W
Kui Tan SC	6-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Yuen Long (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Yuen Long

LWWWDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Leaper FC Hong Kong 1st Division	2-0	3-0	3	5	W
25/10	Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division	2-0	3-1	5	5	W
18/10	Sham Shui Po Hong Kong 1st Division	2-1	4-1	2	3	W
11/10	Lucky Mile Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	2-0	1	3	W
04/10	Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	3-0	2	2	W
27/09	Tung Sing Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	2-2	2	8	D
20/09	Bright Cerulean FC Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	3-1	6	1	W
13/09	Kui Tan SC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	6-0	3	4	W
17/05	Bright Cerulean FC Hong Kong 1st Division	–	3-1	–	–	W
10/05	Shatin Hong Kong 1st Division	0-2	0-2	5	2	L

WSE

WWWLWWDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Sham Shui Po Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	0-1	2	2	L
25/10	Hoi King Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
18/10	Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
11/10	Resources Capital FC Hong Kong 1st Division	1-2	2-2	4	4	D
04/10	Bright Cerulean FC Hong Kong 1st Division	–	4-1	6	4	W
27/09	Sky Leader FC Hong Kong 1st Division	2-1	3-1	5	4	W
20/09	Tung Sing Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	1-2	5	2	L
13/09	South China AA Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
06/09	Kui Tan SC Hong Kong 1st Division	2-0	3-1	1	5	W
17/05	Sham Shui Po Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	2-1	4	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Yuen Long vs WSE?

According to our model, the most likely result is an WSE win (43%). Probabilities: Yuen Long 34%, draw 23%, WSE 43%.

How many goals are expected in Yuen Long vs WSE?

The model expects 3.73 goals (Yuen Long 1.76 · WSE 1.97), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Yuen Long vs WSE?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.