Football · Hong Kong 1st Division · 08/11, 08:30
Prediction: Central & Western vs South China AA
Team pages: Central & Western · South China AA
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.33Total
Central & Western1.83
South China AA1.5
1X2
Central & Western
Draw
South China AA
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Central & Western
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
South China AA
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Central & Western
3–1–2
South China AA
(6 last)
- South China AA3-0Central & Western
- Central & Western0-2South China AA
- Central & Western5-0South China AA
- South China AA0-4Central & Western
- Central & Western2-2South China AA
- Central & Western2-1South China AA
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Central & Western 1512 · South China AA 1576
| Central & Western | Draw | South China AA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 25% | 31% |
| Market | 46% | 23% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.33 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours South China AA (rating 1512 vs 1576).
- H2H favours Central & Western: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Central & Western | South China AA | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.4 / 1.7 | 1.6 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.9 | 1 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 44/22/33% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.4 | 2.1 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.1 | 3.8 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Central & Western 3–1–2 South China AA
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 Hong Kong 1st Division | South China AA | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Central & Western |
| 21/09/25 Hong Kong 1st Division | Central & Western | 0-2 HT 0-1 | South China AA |
| 05/01/25 Hong Kong 1st Division | Central & Western | 5-0 HT 0-0 | South China AA |
| 08/12/24 Hong Kong 1st Division | South China AA | 0-4 HT 0-3 | Central & Western |
| 09/06/24 Hong Kong FA Cup Junior Division | Central & Western | 2-2 HT 2-0 | South China AA |
| 01/05/24 Hong Kong 1st Division | Central & Western | 2-1 HT 2-0 | South China AA |
Standings · Hong Kong 1st Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yuen Long | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 5 | 19 |
| 2 | Resources Capital FC | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 37 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | WSE | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | South China AA | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | Citizen AA | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 14 |
| 6 | Tung Sing | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 13 |
| 7 | Hoi King | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 14 | 12 |
| 8 | Central & Western | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 12 | 12 |
| 9 | Sky Leader FC | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 24 | 7 |
| 10 | Sham Shui Po | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 7 |
| 11 | Bright Cerulean FC | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 25 | 6 |
| 12 | Lucky Mile | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 22 | 4 |
| 13 | Kui Tan SC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 4 |
| 14 | Leaper FC | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 2 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Central & Western | South China AA |
|---|---|---|
| Resources Capital FC | 3-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Sky Leader FC | 5-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Lucky Mile | 5-1 W | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Central & Western (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Central & Western
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Yuen Long Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 18/10 | Hoi King Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-1 | 2-3 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 04/10 | Resources Capital FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-2 | 3-4 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 27/09 | Kui Tan SC Hong Kong 1st Division |
2-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 20/09 | Sky Leader FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
2-0 | 5-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 13/09 | Bright Cerulean FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | Lucky Mile Hong Kong 1st Division |
3-0 | 5-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Resources Capital FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
– | 5-2 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | Bright Cerulean FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
2-1 | 6-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | Hoi King Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
South China AA
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Sham Shui Po Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 18/10 | Lucky Mile Hong Kong 1st Division |
3-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 11/10 | Sky Leader FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 04/10 | Tung Sing Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 27/09 | Leaper FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | Resources Capital FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 10 | D |
| 13/09 | WSE Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 06/09 | Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | Kwun Tong Hong Kong 1st Division |
3-1 | 4-2 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 10/05 | Tung Sing Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Central & Western vs South China AA?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Central & Western win (45%). Probabilities: Central & Western 45%, draw 24%, South China AA 31%.
How many goals are expected in Central & Western vs South China AA?
The model expects 3.33 goals (Central & Western 1.83 · South China AA 1.5), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Central & Western vs South China AA?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.