Football · Hong Kong 1st Division · 13/09, 09:00
Prediction: Tung Sing vs Sham Shui Po
Team pages: Tung Sing · Sham Shui Po
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.86Total
Tung Sing1.8
Sham Shui Po1.06
1X2
Tung Sing
Draw
Sham Shui Po
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Tung Sing
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Sham Shui Po
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Tung Sing
2–3
Sham Shui Po
(5 last)
- Sham Shui Po1-2Tung Sing
- Tung Sing0-2Sham Shui Po
- Sham Shui Po0-2Tung Sing
- Tung Sing1-6Sham Shui Po
- Sham Shui Po2-0Tung Sing
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tung Sing 1560 · Sham Shui Po 1508
| Tung Sing | Draw | Sham Shui Po | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Market | 55% | 22% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.86 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tung Sing (rating 1560 vs 1508).
- H2H favours Sham Shui Po: 3-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tung Sing | Sham Shui Po | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.2 | 1.5 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.8 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.4 | 1.9 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.2 | 3.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tung Sing 2–0–3 Sham Shui Po
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/26 Hong Kong FA Cup Junior Division | Sham Shui Po | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Tung Sing |
| 11/01/26 Hong Kong 1st Division | Tung Sing | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Sham Shui Po |
| 19/10/25 Hong Kong 1st Division | Sham Shui Po | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Tung Sing |
| 05/05/19 Hong Kong 2nd Division | Tung Sing | 1-6 HT 0-2 | Sham Shui Po |
| 07/10/18 Hong Kong 2nd Division | Sham Shui Po | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Tung Sing |
Standings · Hong Kong 1st Division
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Central & Western | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | WSE | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Tung Sing | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Citizen AA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Hoi King | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | 3 Sing FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Leaper FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Resources Capital FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Yuen Long | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | South China AA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 | Sham Shui Po | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 | Kui Tan SC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 | Supreme FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | Lucky Mile | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tung Sing | Sham Shui Po |
|---|---|---|
| Supreme FC | 2-0 W | 0-4 L |
| Lucky Mile | 6-2 W | 2-0 W |
| South China AA | 1-2 L | 4-3 W |
| WSE | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Resources Capital FC | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Kwun Tong | 3-2 W | 4-0 W |
| Shatin | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Central & Western | 2-4 L | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 3 L | 4 W 1 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tung Sing
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Supreme FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Lucky Mile Hong Kong 1st Division |
3-2 | 6-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | South China AA Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 26/04 | WSE Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 19/04 | Resources Capital FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 12/04 | Kwun Tong Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-2 | 3-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 22/03 | Shatin Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 15/03 | Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division |
3-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 08/03 | Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-2 | 2-4 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 01/03 | Yuen Long Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
Sham Shui Po
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Hoi King Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 17/05 | WSE Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 10/05 | Resources Capital FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 26/04 | South China AA Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-2 | 4-3 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 19/04 | Hoi King Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 12/04 | Supreme FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-2 | 0-4 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 22/03 | Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 15/03 | Lucky Mile Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 08/03 | Kwun Tong Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-0 | 4-0 | 13 | 1 | W |
| 01/03 | Shatin Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tung Sing vs Sham Shui Po?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Tung Sing win (55%). Probabilities: Tung Sing 55%, draw 23%, Sham Shui Po 22%.
How many goals are expected in Tung Sing vs Sham Shui Po?
The model expects 2.86 goals (Tung Sing 1.8 · Sham Shui Po 1.06), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Tung Sing vs Sham Shui Po?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.