Football · Hong Kong 1st Division · 06/09, 09:30

Prediction: Citizen AA vs South China AA

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.91Total

Citizen AA1.19

South China AA2.72

1X2

14% 17% 69%

Citizen AA Draw South China AA

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Citizen AA 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLWLLL

South China AA 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWLWWLWW

Head-to-head

Citizen AA 2–2–2 South China AA (6 last)

South China AA2-1Citizen AA
Citizen AA0-3South China AA
South China AA0-4Citizen AA
Citizen AA2-2South China AA
South China AA2-4Citizen AA
Citizen AA2-2South China AA

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Citizen AA 1422 · South China AA 1600

	Citizen AA	Draw	South China AA
Our model	14%	17%	69%
Market	14%	16%	69%

Estimated total (ours) 3.91 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours South China AA (rating 1422 vs 1600).
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Citizen AA	South China AA
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 3.2	2.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.4	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/38/63%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.5	2.6 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	3.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

16.25

X5.50

21.28

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.93

2 (-1.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 42.00

Under 41.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	1.28 → 1.28	Bet365 1.28

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
10:11 +5’	6.25	5.50	1.28

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Citizen AA 2–2–2 South China AA

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Hong Kong 1st Division	South China AA	2-1 HT 1-0	Citizen AA
26/10/25 Hong Kong 1st Division	Citizen AA	0-3 HT 0-1	South China AA
23/02/25 Hong Kong 1st Division	South China AA	0-4 HT 0-1	Citizen AA
06/10/24 Hong Kong 1st Division	Citizen AA	2-2 HT 1-1	South China AA
28/01/24 Hong Kong 1st Division	South China AA	2-4 HT 0-2	Citizen AA
14/01/24 Hong Kong 1st Division	Citizen AA	2-2 HT 1-0	South China AA

Standings · Hong Kong 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bright Cerulean FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Central & Western	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Citizen AA	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hoi King	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kui Tan SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Leaper FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Lucky Mile	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Resources Capital FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sham Shui Po	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	South China AA	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Supreme FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tung Sing	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	WSE	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Yuen Long	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Citizen AA	South China AA
Supreme FC	3-4 L	1-1 D
Shatin	2-3 L	3-0 W
Central & Western	2-5 L	3-0 W
Tung Sing	0-4 L	2-1 W
3 Sing FC	3-0 W	3-0 W
Sham Shui Po	1-3 L	3-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 5 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: South China AA (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Citizen AA

LWLLLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/05	Supreme FC Hong Kong 1st Division	–	3-4	–	–	L
10/05	WSE Hong Kong 1st Division	1-2	3-6	3	2	L
03/05	Shatin Hong Kong 1st Division	1-1	2-3	5	5	L
26/04	Lucky Mile Hong Kong 1st Division	1-1	3-1	10	6	W
19/04	South China AA Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	1-2	4	2	L
12/04	Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division	–	2-5	–	–	L
22/03	Yuen Long Hong Kong 1st Division	0-2	0-4	3	4	L
15/03	Tung Sing Hong Kong 1st Division	0-3	0-4	7	3	L
01/03	3 Sing FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	3-0	7	1	W
08/02	Sham Shui Po Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	1-3	5	6	L

South China AA

WDWWLWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/05	Kwun Tong Hong Kong 1st Division	3-1	4-2	8	0	W
10/05	Tung Sing Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	2-1	4	6	W
26/04	Sham Shui Po Hong Kong 1st Division	2-1	3-4	3	4	L
19/04	Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
12/04	3 Sing FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	3-0	9	1	W
22/03	Resources Capital FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
15/03	Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	3-0	6	5	W
08/03	Hoi King Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	2-0	2	4	W
01/03	Supreme FC Hong Kong 1st Division	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
08/02	Shatin Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	3-0	5	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Citizen AA vs South China AA?

According to our model, the most likely result is an South China AA win (69%). Probabilities: Citizen AA 14%, draw 17%, South China AA 69%.

How many goals are expected in Citizen AA vs South China AA?

The model expects 3.91 goals (Citizen AA 1.19 · South China AA 2.72), with a 54% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Citizen AA vs South China AA?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.