Football · Hong Kong 1st Division · 06/09, 09:30
Prediction: Central & Western vs Lucky Mile
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.63Total
Central & Western3.31
Lucky Mile1.31
1X2
Central & Western
Draw
Lucky Mile
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
3-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Central & Western
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Lucky Mile
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Central & Western
5–0
Lucky Mile
(5 last)
- Lucky Mile0-5Central & Western
- Central & Western3-2Lucky Mile
- Central & Western8-1Lucky Mile
- Central & Western2-1Lucky Mile
- Central & Western5-1Lucky Mile
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Central & Western 1554 · Lucky Mile 1381
| Central & Western | Draw | Lucky Mile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 14% | 11% |
| Market | 85% | 10% | 5% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.63 goals · Bet365 line 4.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Central & Western (rating 1554 vs 1381).
- H2H favours Central & Western: 5-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Central & Western | Lucky Mile | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.9 / 1.7 | 1.1 / 3.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 1.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 38/25/38% | 11/33/56% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.5 / 5.8 | 1.5 / 3.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.3 | 2.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Central & Western 5–0–0 Lucky Mile
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01/26 Hong Kong 1st Division | Lucky Mile | 0-5 HT 0-1 | Central & Western |
| 19/10/25 Hong Kong 1st Division | Central & Western | 3-2 HT 0-0 | Lucky Mile |
| 16/02/25 Hong Kong FA Cup Junior Division | Central & Western | 8-1 HT 3-0 | Lucky Mile |
| 23/12/18 Hong Kong FA Cup Junior Division | Central & Western | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Lucky Mile |
| 10/09/16 Hong Kong 2nd Division | Central & Western | 5-1 HT 4-0 | Lucky Mile |
Standings · Hong Kong 1st Division
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bright Cerulean FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Central & Western | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Citizen AA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Hoi King | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Kui Tan SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Leaper FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lucky Mile | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Resources Capital FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sham Shui Po | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | South China AA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Supreme FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Tung Sing | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | WSE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Yuen Long | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Central & Western | Lucky Mile |
|---|---|---|
| 3 Sing FC | 6-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Hoi King | 0-2 L | 1-5 L |
| Yuen Long | 2-2 D | 0-5 L |
| Citizen AA | 5-2 W | 1-3 L |
| Sham Shui Po | 0-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Tung Sing | 4-2 W | 2-6 L |
| Kwun Tong | 7-0 W | 2-1 W |
| WSE | 0-0 D | 0-9 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Central & Western (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Central & Western
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05 | Resources Capital FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
– | 5-2 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | 3 Sing FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
2-1 | 6-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | Hoi King Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 19/04 | Yuen Long Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 12/04 | Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division |
– | 5-2 | – | – | W |
| 22/03 | Sham Shui Po Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 15/03 | South China AA Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 08/03 | Tung Sing Hong Kong 1st Division |
2-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 01/03 | Kwun Tong Hong Kong 1st Division |
5-0 | 7-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 08/02 | WSE Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | D |
Lucky Mile
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05 | Tung Sing Hong Kong 1st Division |
2-3 | 2-6 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Supreme FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-4 | 3-6 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 26/04 | Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 19/04 | WSE Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-4 | 0-9 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 12/04 | Shatin Hong Kong 1st Division |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 22/03 | 3 Sing FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 15/03 | Sham Shui Po Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 08/03 | Yuen Long Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-1 | 0-5 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 01/03 | Hoi King Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-2 | 1-5 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 08/02 | Kwun Tong Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Central & Western vs Lucky Mile?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Central & Western win (80%). Probabilities: Central & Western 80%, draw 12%, Lucky Mile 8%.
How many goals are expected in Central & Western vs Lucky Mile?
The model expects 4.63 goals (Central & Western 3.31 · Lucky Mile 1.31), with a 54% chance of under 4.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Central & Western vs Lucky Mile?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.