Football · Hong Kong 1st Division · 13/09, 07:30
Prediction: Supreme FC vs Lucky Mile
Team pages: Supreme FC · Lucky Mile
Prediction summary
Expected goals
5.12Total
Supreme FC3.42
Lucky Mile1.7
1X2
Supreme FC
Draw
Lucky Mile
Markets
Under 5.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 64%
Most likely score
3-1 7%
Recent form · 10 last
Supreme FC
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Lucky Mile
0-2-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Supreme FC
3–1
Lucky Mile
(4 last)
- Lucky Mile3-6Supreme FC
- Supreme FC9-0Lucky Mile
- Supreme FC3-1Lucky Mile
- Lucky Mile5-1Supreme FC
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 84%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Supreme FC (rating 1596 vs 1393).
- H2H favours Supreme FC: 3-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Supreme FC | Lucky Mile | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.8 / 1.3 | 1 / 4.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.6 / 0.3 | 0.4 / 2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 63/38/0% | 11/22/67% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4 / 6.5 | 1.3 / 2.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2 / 0.3 | 2.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Supreme FC 3–0–1 Lucky Mile
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 Hong Kong 1st Division | Lucky Mile | 3-6 HT 0-4 | Supreme FC |
| 07/09/25 Hong Kong 1st Division | Supreme FC | 9-0 HT 6-0 | Lucky Mile |
| 27/04/25 Hong Kong 2nd Division | Supreme FC | 3-1 HT 0-0 | Lucky Mile |
| 03/11/24 Hong Kong 2nd Division | Lucky Mile | 5-1 HT 2-1 | Supreme FC |
Standings · Hong Kong 1st Division
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Central & Western | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | WSE | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Tung Sing | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Citizen AA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Hoi King | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | 3 Sing FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Leaper FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Resources Capital FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Yuen Long | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | South China AA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 | Sham Shui Po | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 | Kui Tan SC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 | Supreme FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | Lucky Mile | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Supreme FC | Lucky Mile |
|---|---|---|
| Tung Sing | 0-2 L | 2-6 L |
| Citizen AA | 4-3 W | 1-3 L |
| Yuen Long | 5-1 W | 0-5 L |
| Shatin | 4-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Sham Shui Po | 4-0 W | 0-2 L |
| 3 Sing FC | 6-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Supreme FC (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Supreme FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Tung Sing Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division |
– | 4-3 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | Lucky Mile Hong Kong 1st Division |
4-0 | 6-3 | 12 | 1 | W |
| 26/04 | Yuen Long Hong Kong 1st Division |
2-1 | 5-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 19/04 | Shatin Hong Kong 1st Division |
2-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 12/04 | Sham Shui Po Hong Kong 1st Division |
2-0 | 4-0 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 22/03 | Kwun Tong Hong Kong 1st Division |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 15/03 | 3 Sing FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 6-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 08/03 | Resources Capital FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
2-0 | 5-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 01/03 | South China AA Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
Lucky Mile
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-3 | 1-5 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | Tung Sing Hong Kong 1st Division |
2-3 | 2-6 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Supreme FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-4 | 3-6 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 26/04 | Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 19/04 | WSE Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-4 | 0-9 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 12/04 | Shatin Hong Kong 1st Division |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 22/03 | 3 Sing FC Hong Kong 1st Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 15/03 | Sham Shui Po Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 08/03 | Yuen Long Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-1 | 0-5 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 01/03 | Hoi King Hong Kong 1st Division |
0-2 | 1-5 | 3 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Supreme FC vs Lucky Mile?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Supreme FC win (70%). Probabilities: Supreme FC 70%, draw 15%, Lucky Mile 15%.
How many goals are expected in Supreme FC vs Lucky Mile?
The model expects 5.12 goals (Supreme FC 3.42 · Lucky Mile 1.7), with a 56% chance of under 5.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Supreme FC vs Lucky Mile?
The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.